Did America destroy its economy because of Doomsday models?

Okiya said:
Weka date ya Texas as April 1st and compare.

But according to the screenshot you have posted, Texas would be having 1,968 hospitalizations. But at the moment there are 196 hospitalizations

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And I agreed that what you have said is true. But here is the other thing you are not seeing number of people who died in the time between March 30 and April 2nd did not change the number of people hospitalised. However, the number of people who did report new infections nearly doubled. What happens when these new infections start needing beds? Remember on 30-march there wasnt a figure for people hospitalised, on 31st there were 196.
 
Burner said:
And I agreed that what you have said is true. But here is the other thing you are not seeing number of people who died in the time between March 30 and April 2nd did not change the number of people hospitalised. However, the number of people who did report new infections nearly doubled. What happens when these new infections start needing beds? Remember on 30-march there wasnt a figure for people hospitalised, on 31st there were 196.
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From 30th march to April 2nd new infections increased by 60%. They didn't double. And the reason for the increase in new infections is because they are testing as many people as possible.
 
Okiya said:
From 30th march to April 2nd new infections increased by 60%. They didn't double. And the reason for the increase in new infections is because they are testing as many people as possible.
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That's why i said nearly. And 60% is really significant even if its not entirely doubling. The new infections are only those tested, there is no telling what the number is for those who havent been tested and are waiting for onset of symptoms or are just suffering at home.
 
One would think that overpreparedness would be a much better proposition than being caught flatfooted which is the reason governments exist in the first place.

The KQ captain who passed on was tested more than 5 times returning negative results each time gives us context of how deadly covid is, when he became symptomatic he did not even last 3 days despite being admitted at the Nairobi Hospital which surely must offer competent medical services, don't get fooled by the majority who recover, people are dying despite the best curative efforts being made.

This is a case of prevention trumping cure at every point, economies will rebound, no one can bring the dead back to life.
 
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Okiya said:
I'm not getting the message in your statement.
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If cases increased 60 pc in 4 days, does it matter if they doubled in two or six days? To me 60 in four days is exponential. Please do not tell me about models as I do not even pretend to understand them but your argument that the statisticians' models were off the mark pales in the shadow in light of how the numbers are piling.
 
Mwalimu-G said:
If cases increased 60 pc in 4 days, does it matter if they doubled in two or six days? To me 60 in four days is exponential. Please do not tell me about models as I do not even pretend to understand them but your argument that the statisticians' models were off the mark pales in the shadow in light of how the numbers are piling.
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But @Okiya argument this whole time was about the effect on the economy based on decisions being made using wrong models. @Burner


Hajasema watu hawakufi. We can agree that most responses to him have been emotional, to the point of being branded 'chizi', yet the numbers vindicate him.

He has not gone on a thread about corona victims to claim that they aren't significant.

It is possible to hold two discussions on this thing.
 
Mwalimu-G said:
If cases increased 60 pc in 4 days, does it matter if they doubled in two or six days? To me 60 in four days is exponential. Please do not tell me about models as I do not even pretend to understand them but your argument that the statisticians' models were off the mark pales in the shadow in light of how the numbers are piling.
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That statement I have put in bold tells all about your approach to this situation. Anyway, the models are right now being used to make policy and that's why it is important they try and get it right. A margin of error is allowable but a 4x margin of error shows someone didnt do their homework well.
 
kijanamrefu said:
But @Okiya argument this whole time was about the effect on the economy based on decisions being made using wrong models. @Burner
.

He has not gone on a thread about corona victims to claim that they aren't significant.

It is possible to hold two discussions on this thing.
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I disagree. His one statement all through is that the media is "overhyping" the numbers and the response taken is not proportional since it is based on numbers that dont fit the models projections.

My whole stance is regardless of the projections as they stand so far, the situation is really bad. If things are this bad and actual numbers are "low" what then should they start catching up with projections.
Plus he willfully disregards other data which fits the same projections he claims are overhyped e.g the projected number of total deaths in texas vs reported deaths on April 2nd.
You cant claim something is overhyped when figures and realtime events show otherwise.
 
Burner said:
Plus he willfully disregards other data which fits the same projections he claims are overhyped e.g the projected number of total deaths in texas vs reported deaths on April 2nd.
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Please note that deaths lag behind. The model projected that in Texas 13 people would die from Covid 19 on April 2nd. The actual number of deaths was 12.
 
Burner said:
My whole stance is regardless of the projections as they stand so far, the situation is really bad.
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Of course the situation is bad. Corona virus is a new thing everywhere. But the situation in America is not really bad for them to commit national economic suicide.
 
Burner said:
I disagree. His one statement all through is that the media is "overhyping" the numbers and the response taken is not proportional since it is based on numbers that dont fit the models projections.

My whole stance is regardless of the projections as they stand so far, the situation is really bad. If things are this bad and actual numbers are "low" what then should they start catching up with projections.
Plus he willfully disregards other data which fits the same projections he claims are overhyped e.g the projected number of total deaths in texas vs reported deaths on April 2nd.
You cant claim something is overhyped when figures and realtime events show otherwise.
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I hear what you're saying. The situation is dire.

Allow me to reiterate that the effect of using overblown projection models to create policy and make certain sweeping decisions is the problem here.



A hospital saying that it will put cancer treatments on hold in favour of prepping for corona virus are based on those models, which are then being adopted by other countries. We must interrogate the logic and effect of those decisions.
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Mwalimu-G said:
Jesus! Was there given a margin of error?
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Read my statement. I mentioned deaths lag behind. These are the initial days. As time moves on, you will realise that the gap between the actual deaths and the projected deaths will widen. Right now am questioning hospitalisation. The deaths question will come towards mid month when people start seeing that the 240,000 deaths was a doomsday hype.
 
Okiya said:
Read my statement. I mentioned deaths lag behind. As time moves on, you will realise that the gap between the actual deaths and the projected deaths will widen.
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I see you are eager to trash the projections but do you factor in the interventions such as have come from knowledge gained and shared. How has reduced movement (from increased mass awareness) and better hygiene for example affected the outcomes so far?
 
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