Let us do some mathematics on corona

[The.Black.Templar]

Based on this comment by Aviator

@Ngimanene na Muchere what sayest thou?
View attachment 41884

According to WHO here https://covid19.who.int/region/afro/country/ke "As of 15 August 2021, a total of 2,053,717 vaccine doses have been administered."

that translates to around 4% of the population in Kenya

Based on the illustration by Aviator above 4% of the 86 people admitted comes to around 3.5 people (4 people) but 5 of the 86 admitted had been vaccinated and still got the virus.

The only conclusion to be drawn from this is that the vaccines have failed 100%?? the Jury is out there.

 

[Aviator]

Based on this comment by Aviator



According to WHO here https://covid19.who.int/region/afro/country/ke "As of 15 August 2021, a total of 2,053,717 vaccine doses have been administered."

that translates to around 4% of the population in Kenya

Based on the illustration by Aviator above 4% of the 86 people admitted comes to around 3.5 people (4 people) but 5 of the 86 admitted had been vaccinated and still got the virus.

The only conclusion to be drawn from this is that the vaccines have failed 100%?? the Jury is out there.

You are misinterpreting the statistics. Let me break it down for you.
For simplicity, let us assume that the entire population has been infected. So from 86 people, only 5 of those already vaccinated (1 dose) required hospitalization compared to 81 who haven't been vaccinated. None of those with the 2 doses needed hospital

 

[X-TRAIL]

Hii Sasa ndio mazematics ie full of mazes

 

[It's Me Scumbag]

You are misinterpreting the statistics. Let me break it down for you.
For simplicity, let us assume that the entire population has been infected. So from 86 people, only 5 of those already vaccinated (1 dose) required hospitalization compared to 81 who haven't been vaccinated. None of those with the 2 doses needed hospital

@Aviator wacha nikae hapa kando

 

[The.Black.Templar]

You are misinterpreting the statistics. Let me break it down for you.
For simplicity, let us assume that the entire population has been infected. So from 86 people, only 5 of those already vaccinated (1 dose) required hospitalization compared to 81 who haven't been vaccinated. None of those with the 2 doses needed hospital

and those five would be 100% of the vaccinated people hospitalized. However, all factors remaining constant, where is the proof that those 81 have been hospitalised because they are not vaccinated?

 

[Burner]

Sijaelewa mnabishana nini.
Assuming that screenshot's info is true. @The.Black.Templar this conclusion doesnt follow.

The only conclusion to be drawn from this is that the vaccines have failed 100%?? the Jury is out there.

Wouldnt the total number of admissions be higher than 86 and especially the number of people vaccinated? Or even if the total number of admissions remained at 86 wouldnt there be an even distribution of both vaccinated and unvaccinated people?

 

[Aviator]

and those five would be 100% of the vaccinated people hospitalized. However, all factors remaining constant, where is the proof that those 81 have been hospitalised because they are not vaccinated?

Pleeease
If vaccination was ineffective, then we would have almost equal numbers of those vaccinated vs those not.
The comparative low number can and is hereby attributed to the effectiveness of the vaccine.

 

[Aviator]

there be an even distribution of both vaccinated and unvaccinated people?

Exactly.

 

[The.Black.Templar]

Pleeease
If vaccination was ineffective, then we would have almost equal numbers of those vaccinated vs those not.
The comparative low number can and is hereby attributed to the effectiveness of the vaccine.

statistics dictate that if we have vaccinated 4% of the population then any four people you pick randomly, chances are that 4% will have received their vaccines.

Your logic that we would have an equal number of those vaccinated against those vaccinated for any situation is wrong because the ratio does not add up for any scenario. If the vaccine was effective I would expect to get <4% of the people hospitalized to be the ones who have been vaccinated and not over 5% as represented in your post

 

[The.Black.Templar]

Or even if the total number of admissions remained at 86 wouldnt there be an even distribution of both vaccinated and unvaccinated people?

this is wrong based on the comment above unless we have vaccinated 50% of the population the distribution can never be even, and if it was, it would mean the vaccines are not working

Wouldnt the total number of admissions be higher than 86

this is an assumption, we are dealing with the numbers as it is currently

 

[Burner]

this is wrong based on the comment above unless we have vaccinated 50% of the population the distribution can never be even, and if it was, it would mean the vaccines are not working

this is an assumption, we are dealing with the numbers as it is currently

Firsr, i think you are working with the assumption is that the vaccine is 100% effective and hence vaccinated admissions should be minimal or none at all. For you conclude that the vaccine is ineffective is demonstrably wrong.

what you are doing is counting the hits and ignoring the misses as follows:
81/86 admissions translates to 94%
Where as the 5/86 is 6%
This alone tells you that a lot fewer people who have been vaccinated are admitted compared to those unvaccinated.

Further more the 4% applied to the 86 and the 4 people you you get is well within the margin of error of those to be admitted.

 

[The.Black.Templar]

Firsr, i think you are working with the assumption is that the vaccine is 100% effective and hence vaccinated admissions should be minimal or none at all. For you conclude that the vaccine is ineffective is demonstrably wrong.

what you are doing is counting the hits and ignoring the misses as follows:
81/86 admissions translates to 94%
Where as the 5/86 is 6%
This alone tells you that a lot fewer people who have been vaccinated are admitted compared to those unvaccinated.

Further more the 4% applied to the 86 and the 4 people you you get is well within the margin of error of those to be admitted.

I agree with all of that, I was comparing those admitted with the vaccination rate in the country, the ratio should atleast be the same or less for those who have been vaccinated. If the rate of hospitalization for those vaccinated is higher than the country's rate of vaccination, don't you think there is possibly a problem there?

 

[Ngimanene na Muchere]

All said and done, mathematics or no mathematics, we remain brave with no facial nappy.

 

[Burner]

I agree with all of that, I was comparing those admitted with the vaccination rate in the country, the ratio should atleast be the same or less for those who have been vaccinated. If the rate of hospitalization for those vaccinated is higher than the country's rate of vaccination, don't you think there is possibly a problem there?

Not necessarily. I think the problem is the comparisson. Its not quite right the way you are doing it but i cant put my finger on it. Maybe someone better at statistics can help.

Perhaps if we had the number of total vaccinated people admitted in hospitals countrywide to compare against unvaccinated people. We would then be comparing like for like.

 

[Aviator]

I was comparing those admitted with the vaccination rate in the country, the ratio should atleast be the same or less for those who have been vaccinated

This is where you go wrong. For this to work, you would look at the infection rate, not rate of hospitalization.
In an ideal case, this would mean that if you picked 100 people out there, 4 of them would be vaccinated. That is what the 4>% means.

On the other hand, if you picked 86 people suffering from covid, only 5 of them are vaccinated vs 81 who aren't vaccinated.

 

[The.Black.Templar]

Perhaps if we had the number of total vaccinated people admitted in hospitals countrywide to compare against unvaccinated people. We would then be comparing like for like.

you are right, I should be looking at countrywide admissions....

 

[The.Black.Templar]

This is where you go wrong. For this to work, you would look at the infection rate, not rate of hospitalization.
In an ideal case, this would mean that if you picked 100 people out there, 4 of them would be vaccinated. That is what the 4>% means.

On the other hand, if you picked 86 people suffering from covid, only 5 of them are vaccinated vs 81 who aren't vaccinated.

I am looking at the hospitalization rate since it is generally agreed that you can still get infected even though you are vaccinated, it is the severity of this infection that should be considered and hospitalization can be considered pretty severe. All I am saying is that the ratio should atleast match or be less in favor of the vaccinated if it is really working as intended

 

[Aviator]

All I am saying is that the ratio should atleast match or be less in favor of the vaccinated if it is really working as intended

Isn't that exactly what the statistics are saying?
81 vs 5.

 

[The.Black.Templar]

Isn't that exactly what the statistics are saying?
81 vs 5.

let us do a comparison for a few more days, for me that was on the higher side for comfort

 

[Denis Young]

Mazmatick.