This week marks the second anniversary of the start of the bloodiest war in Europe since WWII.
Here are my thoughts, as well as some key events that have marked the war.
1. Feb 2022, Putin sent 190k soldiers to Kyiv and Eastern Ukraine. The special military operation was aimed at forcing Kiyv to the negotiating table not conquering Ukraine. Anybody who knows about WWII knows that Germany used 1.5 Million soldiers to conquer Poland. So no way 190k soldiers could conquer a country three times bigger than Poland.
2. It's Putin who withdrew his forces from Kiyv as a sign of goodwill after the two sides had reached an agreement in Istanbul. Boris Johnson however went to Kiev and told them to fight on since the West believed Ukraine could hold and the sanctions could cripple Russia.
3. In Sep 2022, Russia withdrew from parts of captured territory(Kharkiv and Kherson ) after finding its forces overstretched. It did not have sufficient troops to defend all the Ukrainian territory it controlled. Consequently, Putin mobilized about 300k soldiers.
4. Nov 2022, Russia scaled up an effort to capture Bakhmut. The two sides engaged in a long and grinding battle for control of that city, which finally ended with a Russian victory in late May 2023. While Ukraine claimed to inflict significant casualties on Russia at a ratio of 1:7 this was far from the truth. Russians managed to seize the flanks and encircle the city, hence disrupting supply/evacuation routes. Instead of withdrawing their forces, Ukraine sent their most elite forces to save the situation. Consequently, the most skilled and motivated soldiers were exchanged for Wagner soldiers mostly recruited from prisons. General Syrski who was behind this catastrophic mistake was recently promoted to the rank of Commander in Chief. It is estimated that each side lost more than 50k soldiers during this fight. While the 'Western Analysts' described Bakhmut as strategically unimportant, I believe the main goal of this offensive was to buy time for Russia to build its defense lines.
5. June 2023: Ukraine launched its counter-offensive to take back the land occupied by Russians. The plan was to punch a large hole in Russia’s defensive lines and then drive deep into Russian-controlled territory, not only capturing territory along the way, but delivering a hammer blow to the Russian army. In the first 2wks of the much-awaited offensive, NYTimes reported Ukraine lost more than 20% of the equipment meant for this offensive. The operation was a failure, which ended in Sep 2023.
6. Oct 2023: Russia launched a large-scale operation to capture a city called Adviivka. So while the Russians took heavy casualties during the initial days of the offensive, the city fell into Russians last Saturday after the hasty withdrawal of Ukraine defenders. There are reports of more than 1000 UA soldiers being captured or killed during the last day of retreat.
Btw, Russia has some of the most stupid Generals on earth. I don't know....maybe it's the soviet doctrine to go for what you want regardless of the cost. I have watched videos of Russian columns getting annihilated after driving on mines that anybody with eyes can see. Just yesterday, more than 100 soldiers were killed in training near the front line. In a war where everything is being monitored by your opponent, it was idiotic to assemble hundreds of soldiers at such a location.
Nmechoka...
Here are my thoughts, as well as some key events that have marked the war.
1. Feb 2022, Putin sent 190k soldiers to Kyiv and Eastern Ukraine. The special military operation was aimed at forcing Kiyv to the negotiating table not conquering Ukraine. Anybody who knows about WWII knows that Germany used 1.5 Million soldiers to conquer Poland. So no way 190k soldiers could conquer a country three times bigger than Poland.
2. It's Putin who withdrew his forces from Kiyv as a sign of goodwill after the two sides had reached an agreement in Istanbul. Boris Johnson however went to Kiev and told them to fight on since the West believed Ukraine could hold and the sanctions could cripple Russia.
3. In Sep 2022, Russia withdrew from parts of captured territory(Kharkiv and Kherson ) after finding its forces overstretched. It did not have sufficient troops to defend all the Ukrainian territory it controlled. Consequently, Putin mobilized about 300k soldiers.
4. Nov 2022, Russia scaled up an effort to capture Bakhmut. The two sides engaged in a long and grinding battle for control of that city, which finally ended with a Russian victory in late May 2023. While Ukraine claimed to inflict significant casualties on Russia at a ratio of 1:7 this was far from the truth. Russians managed to seize the flanks and encircle the city, hence disrupting supply/evacuation routes. Instead of withdrawing their forces, Ukraine sent their most elite forces to save the situation. Consequently, the most skilled and motivated soldiers were exchanged for Wagner soldiers mostly recruited from prisons. General Syrski who was behind this catastrophic mistake was recently promoted to the rank of Commander in Chief. It is estimated that each side lost more than 50k soldiers during this fight. While the 'Western Analysts' described Bakhmut as strategically unimportant, I believe the main goal of this offensive was to buy time for Russia to build its defense lines.
5. June 2023: Ukraine launched its counter-offensive to take back the land occupied by Russians. The plan was to punch a large hole in Russia’s defensive lines and then drive deep into Russian-controlled territory, not only capturing territory along the way, but delivering a hammer blow to the Russian army. In the first 2wks of the much-awaited offensive, NYTimes reported Ukraine lost more than 20% of the equipment meant for this offensive. The operation was a failure, which ended in Sep 2023.
6. Oct 2023: Russia launched a large-scale operation to capture a city called Adviivka. So while the Russians took heavy casualties during the initial days of the offensive, the city fell into Russians last Saturday after the hasty withdrawal of Ukraine defenders. There are reports of more than 1000 UA soldiers being captured or killed during the last day of retreat.
Btw, Russia has some of the most stupid Generals on earth. I don't know....maybe it's the soviet doctrine to go for what you want regardless of the cost. I have watched videos of Russian columns getting annihilated after driving on mines that anybody with eyes can see. Just yesterday, more than 100 soldiers were killed in training near the front line. In a war where everything is being monitored by your opponent, it was idiotic to assemble hundreds of soldiers at such a location.
Nmechoka...