This is Guka - They Have Started Writing the Epitaphs................I Love It!

Field Marshal

Field Marshal

Elder Lister
RWNBP.

We have said it countless times, and finally it's starting to sink in even among the most ardent Babuonists like @Swansea (Njaruo bana, si utume kakirru!) and @JazzMan, the Mkisii Msoto who abandoned the sinking ship a while ago.

For many f us in Mt Kenya Region, ni sherehe after sherehe....................


Raila isolated, 2022 looks set to be Ruto vs One Kenya

In Summary
  • Coalitions are nothing more than elite pacts that bring together ethnic vote blocs controlled by political kingpins
  • That is what politicians mean when they say they are ready to work with “like-minded leaders” for “national unity”

ODM leader Raila Odinga with party members at his Karen residence, Wednesday March 31, 2021.
ODM leader Raila Odinga with party members at his Karen residence, Wednesday March 31, 2021.
Image: ODM Party communications

ODM leader Raila Odinga cut a forlorn figure in a photo circulated on Wednesday. The clique of party loyalists surrounding him was mostly small fry from Luo-Nyanza. Do secretary general Edwin Sifuna and treasurer Timothy Bosire count even at home?

Baba’s national footprint has shrunk. His allies have abandoned him to seek new friends.

Nasa is dead. The Coast has broken away to cobble together a region-based political vehicle. Deputy party leader and Mombasa Governor Hassan Joho, his Kilifi counterpart Amason Kingi and Salim Mvurya of Kwale met President Uhuru Kenyatta the other week behind Raila’s back.

ODM’s other deputy party leader Wycliffe Oparanya appeared to read from a different script, suggesting on Tuesday the BBI referendum proposed for June should be pushed back and national resources dedicated to fighting Covid. Governor Oparanya is cracking the hard math as his two terms end.

Western, Eastern and parts of the Rift Valley are bases of the new One Kenya Alliance of Musalia Mudavadi (ANC), Kalonzo Musyoka (Wiper) and Gideon Moi (Kanu). The coalition has been energised by its by-election wins in Matungu and Machakos. It is also said to enjoy support from State House.
The rupture in Jubilee occasioned by the handshake has left the Mt Kenya bloc isolated and uncertain – but firmly united in its rejection of Raila. The region must soon make its stand known. Nairobi will be split.

It is highly unlikely any major politician will enter a coalition with Raila now. His best years are behind him. The handshake demobilised his national base and muted his critical voice that endeared him to millions. With Raila’s chances of winning the presidency in his fifth attempt getting slimmer by the day, One Kenya Alliance will be the formidable challenger to the clear frontrunner in the 2022 race – William Ruto.

A scenario similar to 2002 could unfold if Uhuru, having ditched Deputy President William Ruto, endorses Raila whose political fortunes have dwindled nationally following the handshake. He is unelectable in Mt Kenya, the Rift Valley, Western, Coast and Northeastern. His following is limited to Luo-Nyanza and sections of Nairobi.

It is highly unlikely any major politician will enter a coalition with Raila now. His best years are behind him. The handshake demobilised his national base and muted his critical voice that endeared him to millions. With Raila’s chances of winning the presidency in his fifth attempt getting slimmer by the day, One Kenya Alliance will be the formidable challenger to the clear frontrunner in the 2022 race – William Ruto.

The remaining task for One Kenya and Ruto is to win Mt Kenya and the Coast. Both are open. Neither region is likely to field a presidential contender. But it is the Mt Kenya bloc vote (plus its diaspora) that will decide the next president.
 
At the moment it is very difficult to draw conclusions.
The one Kenya alliance is a non-starter as currently composed. They can not even marshal the numbers to beat Raila on his own because none of them are national leaders.
On the other hand, a Ruto and Raila partnership would be quite formidable but who will play second fiddle? Ruto can't because he can't become DP again and Raila is not likely to accept anything less than the presidency.

Equally, Ruto would probably lose the Central vote if he partnered with Raila. I would anticipate apathy in Central if that was the case because there currently isn't a viable kikuyu candidate to back.

All will become clear once the BBI process ends. At that point we will have a clear idea of Uhuru's end game. Maybe that empty seat belongs to him. He would most likely argue that we are under a new constitutional dispensation and that allows him to vie again or create a transitional government. We will know soon enough.
 
Kuzeeka siyo kitu mzuri. Kwa hiyo picha mnaona Orengo anasimama kama scarecrow..............................and just the other day he was one of the young Turks.

Mtu asi-comment juu ya another Young Turk always behind the keyboard...............
 
One Kenya ni mnyambo wa punda, all they are doing is to raise their price pale mnadani. To run for president huku you need to have a lock on your tribe, only Kalonzo has that na ni only a million votes, give or take.
Water melon akiambiwa na Raila kuja kuwa deputy, Weta aambiwe na Ruto kuja kuwa speaker, pale panabaki sponsare na maDvD.
Kizungumkuti ya Raila ni picking a deputy president with more votes than Water Melon, hamna.
Naye ya Ruto is picking a mount kenya deputy that will ensure turnout in the mountain remains high and at the same time not be a controversial figure that will loose him votes in other areas,yetu macho.
 
Denis Young said:
At the moment it is very difficult to draw conclusions.
The one Kenya alliance is a non-starter as currently composed. They can not even marshal the numbers to beat Raila on his own because none of them are national leaders.
On the other hand, a Ruto and Raila partnership would be quite formidable but who will play second fiddle? Ruto can't because he can't become DP again and Raila is not likely to accept anything less than the presidency.

Equally, Ruto would probably lose the Central vote if he partnered with Raila. I would anticipate apathy in Central if that was the case because there currently isn't a viable kikuyu candidate to back.

All will become clear once the BBI process ends. At that point we will have a clear idea of Uhuru's end game. Maybe that empty seat belongs to him. He would most likely argue that we are under a new constitutional dispensation and that allows him to vie again or create a transitional government. We will know soon enough.
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:LOL::LOL::LOL: my friend uhuru is a failure rejected by his own backyard, he risks losing international support if he continues with this attempt to rape katiba. BBI is dead and no constitutional amendment will happen, uhuru is going home a frustrated president like moi.
 
Okiya said:
Ati some sections of the Rift Valley are under One Kenya Alliance? Which sections are these? The writer of this article is clearly a One Kenya Alliance blogger. I don't support Ruto but the entire RV is his.
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Entire RV, you mean Kalenjin-land? Maasai land ni kama Kisii and huko Wesdan, their votes could be split. And also RV kyuks are vital in his calculations.
 
Denis Young said:
On the other hand, a Ruto and Raila partnership would be quite formidable but who will play second fiddle? Ruto can't because he can't become DP again and Raila is not likely to accept anything less than the presidency.

Equally, Ruto would probably lose the Central vote if he partnered with Raila. I would anticipate apathy in Central if that was the case because there currently isn't a viable kikuyu candidate to back.
Click to expand...
Hapa ndio itakuwa interesting. Hakuna vile either of them watakubali kuwa deputy wa mwingine.

Hakuna yule atakubali kusabotage chances zake with current standings, that is if Raila has any standing outside of Nyanza/Western.
 
JazzMan said:
Hapa ndio itakuwa interesting. Hakuna vile either of them watakubali kuwa deputy wa mwingine.

Hakuna yule atakubali kusabotage chances zake with current standings, that is if Raila has any standing outside of Nyanza/Western.
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You mean even an experienced analyst like you (ahem!) can fall for spin?

Some sly journalist asked Ruto whether he can work with Raila and Ruto said he can work with everybody, including Raila because he's a Kenyan. A very diplomatic answer.

What did you get the following day? That a raila-Ruto alliance was in the offing.

This is what is called agenda-setting by the media. It is borderline unethical. You walk up to @Introvert and ask him, "Sir, are you a gay motorcycle thief?"

And the following day you lead with: "Introvert Denies He's a Homosexual, Says He Just Rides His Own Motorcycles".

Long and short of it? Everybody knows Raila is going down like a rock. Only a fool would want to be associated with him, and least of all, the incoming president.
 
ShakaZulu said:
:LOL::LOL::LOL: my friend uhuru is a failure rejected by his own backyard, he risks losing international support if he continues with this attempt to rape katiba. BBI is dead and no constitutional amendment will happen, uhuru is going home a frustrated president like moi.
Click to expand...
I would suggest listening to the old wise head, Barrack Muluka. He councils that you never take a one-minded stance when generating opinions because you don't know what tomorrow holds. You don't know how crazy Jayden is or how far he is willing to go.
His actions tell you that. You cannot pin down his goals with any significant accuracy. The BBI is the only major point of convergence. Any decision Jayden takes will be on the back of whatever happens with BBI.
 
Field Marshal said:
You mean even an experienced analyst like you (ahem!) can fall for spin?

Some sly journalist asked Ruto whether he can work with Raila and Ruto said he can work with everybody, including Raila because he's a Kenyan. A very diplomatic answer.

What did you get the following day? That a raila-Ruto alliance was in the offing.

This is what is called agenda-setting by the media. It is borderline unethical. You walk up to @Introvert and ask him, "Sir, are you a gay motorcycle thief?"

And the following day you lead with: "Introvert Denies He's a Homosexual, Says He Just Rides His Own Motorcycles".

Long and short of it? Everybody knows Raila is going down like a rock. Only a fool would want to be associated with him, and least of all, the incoming president.
Click to expand...
Kuwa mpole. Hawa ni politricksters. Wanaweza kuwa wanatusiana huku nje lakini wakizima camera wanapelekana date Two Rivers. Before handshake, who would have thought the liar and the gatodo defo would agree and shake hands?

Yes, it is spin but when politician's interests are threatened, "miracles" happen.
 
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