Projections Za 9th August, Forget Percentages, Turnout Is Everything. 50% - 50%

[shocks]

Railas biggest downside is whether I've over estimated gema to his favour.

Rutos biggest downside is whether I've overestimated ingo, ukambani and coast.

Ukiona projections that have 90% turnout, jua unaingizwa (za Moses Kuria), ukiona polls that have a delta of more than 5%, call bullshit.

Editable file

 

[wrongturn]

Railas biggest downside is whether I've over estimated gema to his favour.

Rutos biggest downside is whether I've overestimated ingo, ukambani and coast.

I think you're almost realistic, 'coz rao getting more than 30% is very hard sell in gema. Both camps have made some marginal inroads on both sides. Turn out will be very key particularly for ruto. To have a realistic view put all the candidates and give an assumption of spoilt votes so that the results are almost holistic for next month.
@Da Vinci na @The.Black.Templar kujeni muone predictions bila emotions.

 

[The.Black.Templar]

Imo, rao can only loose...if you look at the times he has ran against new candidates, anakuwanga chini sana

 

[Mwalimu-G]

Imo, rao can only loose...if you look at the times he has ran against new candidates, anakuwanga chini sana

What do you mean?

 

[Kdawg254]

On election night when results start trickling in watu wasijifiche

 

[shocks]

I think you're almost realistic, 'coz rao getting more than 30% is very hard sell in gema. Both camps have made some marginal inroads on both sides. Turn out will be very key particularly for ruto. To have a realistic view put all the candidates and give an assumption of spoilt votes so that the results are almost holistic for next month.
@Da Vinci na @The.Black.Templar kujeni muone predictions bila emotions.

Spoilt votes don't count, wajakoya atashindana na spoilt votes nimewatoa to simplify the figures

 

[shocks]

On election night when results start trickling in watu wasijifiche

Sisi the brave tutakuwa papa hapa celebrating or licking our wounds

 

[Kdawg254]

I think you're almost realistic, 'coz rao getting more than 30% is very hard sell in gema. Both camps have made some marginal inroads on both sides. Turn out will be very key particularly for ruto. To have a realistic view put all the candidates and give an assumption of spoilt votes so that the results are almost holistic for next month.
@Da Vinci na @The.Black.Templar kujeni muone predictions bila emotions.

You say no emotions yet you give muguruki 12% in kalenjin land and 26% in GEMA lakini Ruto atapata 5% in Luo Nyanza and 25% in Gusii??

 

[Field Marshal]

I am on the ground in Mt Kenya. Raila will get between 30-40 per cent of Gema vote.

Bookmark this.

Anecdotal

 

[shocks]

You say no emotions yet you give muguruki 12% in kalenjin land and 26% in GEMA lakini Ruto atapata 5% in Luo Nyanza and 25% in Gusii??

Nos. ni zangu, Gusii could be a miss, ngumu sana kusoma hao. Kalenjin land is coz of plantation workers, ukiangalia previous elections utawapata

 

[Othello]

Imefika mahali I can't trust these polls anymore. JS has very deep roots in the grassroots thanks to their 4 yr campaign, unmitigated global economic crisis, and free publicity by Uhuru's mess (from how he handled displacements during COVID, COVID billioneares etc. ) Alaf yule jamaa mwingine speaks as if he has no advisors, or rather his only advisor is uhuru. Who wrote that manifesto really? Manifestos mean nothing, but they seem to have no idea of what's wrong right now. Man, out foreign currency reserves are at lowest, ksh is getting battered daily by USD, and we are on a blink of public debt default, and you are saying you'll increase govt expenditure? Lying in siasa requires some intelligence, and paying university fees, sjui minimum guaranteed returns, 6k is simply impossible and everyone knows that. Copy pasting NASA manifesto would have made sense.
Let me say I am Soo disappointed and on the verge of giving up with my candidate, but will wake up on 9th and vote out the biggest fraud of our time- JS.

 

[wrongturn]

You say no emotions yet you give muguruki 12% in kalenjin land and 26% in GEMA lakini Ruto atapata 5% in Luo Nyanza and 25% in Gusii??

Sio mimi ni me post but weka emotions kando and read the reply from @shocks . What I know one camp must cry election night , so ni vizuri kuwa na open mind if you're licking wounds that night, you do it very fast.

 

[Othello]

I think you're almost realistic, 'coz rao getting more than 30% is very hard sell in gema

It's possible, or even 35%. Shida ni vile anaahidi vitu azimake sense. That creates apathy to many people

 

[Pseudonyms]

Railas biggest downside is whether I've over estimated gema to his favour.

So the turn-out in Nyanza will be 95% with almost all going to Raila, while North Rift and GEMA will half-heatedly turn out at 75% and still give Raila a third of those votes?

What P.E. are you playing with numbers Kijana?

 

[wrongturn]

So the turn-out in Nyanza will be 95% with almost all going to Raila, while North Rift and GEMA will half-heatedly turn out at 75% and still give Raila a third of those votes?

What P.E. are you playing with numbers Kijana?

check again column ya turn out, all are in the range of 70s.

 

[Mwalimu-G]

check again column ya turn out, all are in the range of 70s.

The rush to disparage can contribute to comprehension problems and wrong conclusions.

 

[shocks]

So the turn-out in Nyanza will be 95% with almost all going to Raila, while North Rift and GEMA will half-heatedly turn out at 75% and still give Raila a third of those votes?

What P.E. are you playing with numbers Kijana?

Umekunywa kitu mbovu, turnout iko in the 70s in Luo land, and yes, Raila support in central will be above 20%. I've already explained the Raila nos. in Kalenjin Rift, immigrant workers

 

[shocks]

Let me say I am Soo disappointed and on the verge of giving up with my candidate, but will wake up on 9th and vote out the biggest fraud of our time- JS.

Niko hapo na wewe, lakini ever since Sonko was elected kura yangu lazima ipigwe even if its Kidero on the opposite side

 

[mzeiya]

Imefika mahali I can't trust these polls anymore. JS has very deep roots in the grassroots thanks to their 4 yr campaign, unmitigated global economic crisis, and free publicity by Uhuru's mess (from how he handled displacements during COVID, COVID billioneares etc. ) Alaf yule jamaa mwingine speaks as if he has no advisors, or rather his only advisor is uhuru. Who wrote that manifesto really? Manifestos mean nothing, but they seem to have no idea of what's wrong right now. Man, out foreign currency reserves are at lowest, ksh is getting battered daily by USD, and we are on a blink of public debt default, and you are saying you'll increase govt expenditure? Lying in siasa requires some intelligence, and paying university fees, sjui minimum guaranteed returns, 6k is simply impossible and everyone knows that. Copy pasting NASA manifesto would have made sense.
Let me say I am Soo disappointed and on the verge of giving up with my candidate, but will wake up on 9th and vote out the biggest fraud of our time- JS.

F A C T S

 

[Othello]

F A C T S

You even wonder what really drives their ambition. Or is it something they are guaranteed? I believe there is a good % of voters who look at the manifestos. Ikifika Hapa JS scores 10, azimio 00.