Kujeni class kidogo watu wa SACCOs, pension funds and other investors. How Chinese virus will affect you

Okiya

Elder Lister
Say you make a contribution of Kshs 10,000 per month to a SACCO or to another investment. The SACCO or investment company will invest the money somewhere else.
At this point let me give you a secret, if you have invested your money in the short term in instruments like money market and the interest rate is less than 9%, those guys are just conning you. Further, if you have invested in the long term and the interest rate is less than 12.5% then you are getting the short end of the stick.


Why do I say so? Its because those interest rates I have quoted are the treasury bills and bonds rates. They are risk free!!! So you are better taking your money to CBK and get 9% interest than take to a money market that gives you 8%. I hope that makes sense.


Now back to our discussion. The SACCO, investment company and pension fund will invest the contributions in assets such as bank deposits, NSE shares, treasury bonds, real estate and loan to other members. Note that not all these assets can be converted to cash immediately.


So an unforeseen event i.e. Chinese virus is here and many people e.g. SACCO members in the aviation, horticulture or tourism industry want back their contributions immediately. What does the SACCO do? Do they sell shares at a loss? Do they forcefully tell the borrowers to repay so that they can return members funds? Who do they sell the land to at this time?


The way out for these investment firms, SACCOs and pension firms is to use a liquidity management tool called Gate Provision . The tool is widely used in Europe and USA. What is a gate provision?

Gate provisions restrict redemptions and help to prevent runs on the fund. When a fund, particularly a hedge fund, is holding complex investment products, unwinding positions can take time. The gate provision is built into the fund offering to prevent a situation where redemption requests cost the fund further by forcing liquidation in an adverse market situation.

In Luxembourg, which is Europe's largest investment hub, a number of funds have suspended trading as a result of the volatility caused by the Chinese virus. In United Kingdom Aviva Investors has suspended its UK property fund joining the likes of Janus Henderson property fund and Kames' Property income.

If Kenya does not employ gate redemptions especially on SACCOs, the financial catastrophe can be unimaginable. Zitaanguka one by one. That's the reality.



 
Extract from financial times.

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20200420_110502.jpg
 
Does the Gate Provision also provide for how long it should be in place?
Because some might use it and continue to invest your money in secure government money market?
 
Does the Gate Provision also provide for how long it should be in place?
Because some might use it and continue to invest your money in secure government money market?

Since nobody knows when chinese virus will end, the gate provision does not state how long it will be in place
 
Say you make a contribution of Kshs 10,000 per month to a SACCO or to another investment. The SACCO or investment company will invest the money somewhere else.
At this point let me give you a secret, if you have invested your money in the short term in instruments like money market and the interest rate is less than 9%, those guys are just conning you. Further, if you have invested in the long term and the interest rate is less than 12.5% then you are getting the short end of the stick.


Why do I say so? Its because those interest rates I have quoted are the treasury bills and bonds rates. They are risk free!!! So you are better taking your money to CBK and get 9% interest than take to a money market that gives you 8%. I hope that makes sense.


Now back to our discussion. The SACCO, investment company and pension fund will invest the contributions in assets such as bank deposits, NSE shares, treasury bonds, real estate and loan to other members. Note that not all these assets can be converted to cash immediately.


So an unforeseen event i.e. Chinese virus is here and many people e.g. SACCO members in the aviation, horticulture or tourism industry want back their contributions immediately. What does the SACCO do? Do they sell shares at a loss? Do they forcefully tell the borrowers to repay so that they can return members funds? Who do they sell the land to at this time?


The way out for these investment firms, SACCOs and pension firms is to use a liquidity management tool called Gate Provision . The tool is widely used in Europe and USA. What is a gate provision?

Gate provisions restrict redemptions and help to prevent runs on the fund. When a fund, particularly a hedge fund, is holding complex investment products, unwinding positions can take time. The gate provision is built into the fund offering to prevent a situation where redemption requests cost the fund further by forcing liquidation in an adverse market situation.

In Luxembourg, which is Europe's largest investment hub, a number of funds have suspended trading as a result of the volatility caused by the Chinese virus. In United Kingdom Aviva Investors has suspended its UK property fund joining the likes of Janus Henderson property fund and Kames' Property income.

If Kenya does not employ gate redemptions especially on SACCOs, the financial catastrophe can be unimaginable. Zitaanguka one by one. That's the reality.



Tulinyimwa dividends ya last year in one of the saccos then they keep sending stupid email reminding us to not to fail to remit our monthly contribution. Nilichoka at that point
 
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@Okiya please baki kwa such threads. Vitu za orange face inafanya your credit score ishuke please.

So back to my question I asked you a week ago.. I give you 700,000 and ask you to gamble in NSE . I want you to buy stock ya 7 years. Najua zinachapa saa hii. Give me your 8 best pick. You warned me of KQ... thank you even though my youngest son knows that 😊. Now tell me which one I should get?
 
@Okiya please baki kwa such threads. Vitu za orange face inafanya your credit score ishuke please.

So back to my question I asked you a week ago.. I give you 700,000 and ask you to gamble in NSE . I want you to buy stock ya 7 years. Najua zinachapa saa hii. Give me your 8 best pick. You warned me of KQ... thank you even though my youngest son knows that 😊. Now tell me which one I should get?

KCB, Equity, Coop, NIC, CIC, Safaricom. The companies have good corporate governance when you look at their board of directors and have intent of creating long term value.
 
KCB, Equity, Coop, NIC, CIC, Safaricom. The companies have good corporate governance when you look at their board of directors and have intent of creating long term value.
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msitoo wetu
1. KCB, Equity,NIC iko sawa , though don't you think you are over exposed kwa banking 4 out of 6 ?
2. Coop is the worst portfolio iv ever had . this thing has never oscillated past ksh 12 since 2006.. yaani wacha tu.
3. CIC is good lakini wamekuwa below sub ksh 2.50 for ever . Heneway i saw they posted good earnings last year. Its a good bet . I can buy like 50,000 shares just to make my portfolio look fat ilhali there is nothing in there :LOL: :LOL: :LOL: :LOL:
4. Safaricom haishuki bana .. its the only stock that hasn't been ravaged by the bear . this will be my last option. I just want cheap cheap ones
 
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msitoo wetu
1. KCB, Equity,NIC iko sawa , though don't you think you are over exposed kwa banking 4 out of 6 ?
2. Coop is the worst portfolio iv ever had . this thing has never oscillated past ksh 12 since 2006.. yaani wacha tu.
3. CIC is good lakini wamekuwa below sub ksh 2.50 for ever . Heneway i saw they posted good earnings last year. Its a good bet . I can buy like 50,000 shares just to make my portfolio look fat ilhali there is nothing in there :LOL: :LOL: :LOL: :LOL:
4. Safaricom haishuki bana .. its the only stock that hasn't been ravaged by the bear . this will be my last option. I just want cheap cheap ones

Coop imeshawahi fika over 20bob
I like banks because it has two strong regulators (CMA and CBK)
 
Naogopa centum for the same reason I feared transcentury. Companies that are doing well because their owners are close to the prez. But I may be wrong.
iv never trusted Chris and i will not . I saw him buying en mass the other day . He doesn't buy to keep.. atangoja till when its 35 auuze making clean 12 then repeat the whole process again. The worst inside trader ni hiyo ngombe and we don't have rules to get hold of such people . Anyway Ahsante and you are well versed with these things . thank you
 
iv never trusted Chris and i will not . I saw him buying en mass the other day . He doesn't buy to keep.. atangoja till when its 35 auuze making clean 12 then repeat the whole process again. The worst inside trader ni hiyo ngombe and we don't have rules to get hold of such people . Anyway Ahsante and you are well versed with these things . thank you
centum nipata potea my friend. They are too exposed to real estate.
@Okiya, fuata vile huyu mzee amesema kuhusu maneno ya tirampu. Then, counters za manufacturing, gani unaona zinaweza
 
centum nipata potea my friend. They are too exposed to real estate.
@Okiya, fuata vile huyu mzee amesema kuhusu maneno ya tirampu. Then, counters za manufacturing, gani unaona zinaweza

If you compare the % of manufacturing to Kenya's GDP over the years you will realise it has reduced during jubilee tenure. I'll be honest to say sijawahi kuwa na interest in that sector.
 
If you compare the % of manufacturing to Kenya's GDP over the years you will realise it has reduced during jubilee tenure. I'll be honest to say sijawahi kuwa na interest in that sector.
@shocks manufacturing kenya ni stima ya kuotea mbali. Banking ndio iko pesa hata real estate usiguze for now . Agriculture sio mbaya lakini hizi locusts hazileti shambwe vimbwembwe na nderemo
 
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