Nabongo Mumia VII
Lister
I remember having a debate with a Somali guy from Kenya about the country Somalia online. He seemed to associate more with Somalia than with Kenya, and he claimed that after Somalia stabilizes, the Somalis in Kenya will want to secede and be ruled from Mogadishu. He also brought up the fact that the North Eastern counties have some of the highest birth rates in the nation and that the population of ethnic Somalis will swell rapidly in coming years, and that they would have sufficient political power to easily secede.
He said that the expansion of Somalia was inevitable because the Somali people would naturally not want to be divided. I then asked him if the Somalis in the Ogaden Province would want to also want to be governed from Mogadishu, and he said, "no, because Somalis aren't discriminated against in Ethiopia" which led me to make the counter argument that the former NE Province is no longer marginalised thanks to devolution. I also pointed out that part of the LAPSSET corridor passes through Garissa so it's unlikely that our govt would be willing to part with it.
Plus, when will Somalia become reasonably stable? He made it seem like Somalia will be well ahead of Kenya by 2030 which is unlikely. Somalia's infrastructure still lags behind Kenya which would hamper their economy. He said that if Kenya was unwilling to comply, then Kenya would be invaded and the former NEP counties would be 'liberated' by force. This is quite laughable because Kenya's military is the 84th strongest in the world as of 2020 whereas Somalia is waaaaaaay down at 136th. Somalia wouldn't dare attack Kenya unless they make a 180 degree about-turn sometime in the near future. And by the time that can take place Kenya will be further than it is today.
Moreover, the most laughable thing about his claims is that the whole idea of a united Somalia is as dead as a doornail. Take for example Somaliland, which claims to be a sovereign and independent state, which is also less shitty than Somalia and more peaceful too. They aren't flinging their arms towards Mogadishu, rather they want their government in Hargeisa to be recognised by others in the international community. Even if Somalia stabilized and it's economy returned to pre-war levels and higher, they wouldn't want to be a part of the Federal Republic.
So why would Kenyan Somalis want to secede to a Somalia which wouldn't even contain all of the pre-colonial territory the Somali people inhabited? In fact, the Somali people have never been united under one state before. The closest thing to a Pan-Somali state before the current Federal Republic was the Ajuran Sultanate which covered a large portion of what would become Italian Somaliland. Plus I really don't think that Kenyan Somalis would rather be a part of the Federal Republic of Somalia than Kenya. They are no longer marginalised, and if anything their growing numbers will mean the North Eastern counties will be alocated more funds from the National Government.
The counties of Mandera, Wajir and Garissa are scarcely populated, so higher population growth will mean that these parts of the country will be unable to be ignored going forward. Kenyan Somalis are as much a part of our great nation as any other community within these borders. Politicians of that community are as patriotic as those from other corners of Kenya. We are moving forward together as one nation. Plus, even though the Somali people are separated by national borders, they can still be united culturally the same way Pokots in Kenya and Uganda are still united through blood despite belonging to different countries, same goes for the Maa community in KE and TZ. So I doubt that Kenyan Somalis will be eager to part with Kenya and join Somalia which will be probably missing the former territory north of Cape Guardaful that was governed by the British during the colonial period.
Anyway, what are your thoughts on the idea of a Pan-Somali ethnostate?
He said that the expansion of Somalia was inevitable because the Somali people would naturally not want to be divided. I then asked him if the Somalis in the Ogaden Province would want to also want to be governed from Mogadishu, and he said, "no, because Somalis aren't discriminated against in Ethiopia" which led me to make the counter argument that the former NE Province is no longer marginalised thanks to devolution. I also pointed out that part of the LAPSSET corridor passes through Garissa so it's unlikely that our govt would be willing to part with it.
Plus, when will Somalia become reasonably stable? He made it seem like Somalia will be well ahead of Kenya by 2030 which is unlikely. Somalia's infrastructure still lags behind Kenya which would hamper their economy. He said that if Kenya was unwilling to comply, then Kenya would be invaded and the former NEP counties would be 'liberated' by force. This is quite laughable because Kenya's military is the 84th strongest in the world as of 2020 whereas Somalia is waaaaaaay down at 136th. Somalia wouldn't dare attack Kenya unless they make a 180 degree about-turn sometime in the near future. And by the time that can take place Kenya will be further than it is today.
Moreover, the most laughable thing about his claims is that the whole idea of a united Somalia is as dead as a doornail. Take for example Somaliland, which claims to be a sovereign and independent state, which is also less shitty than Somalia and more peaceful too. They aren't flinging their arms towards Mogadishu, rather they want their government in Hargeisa to be recognised by others in the international community. Even if Somalia stabilized and it's economy returned to pre-war levels and higher, they wouldn't want to be a part of the Federal Republic.
So why would Kenyan Somalis want to secede to a Somalia which wouldn't even contain all of the pre-colonial territory the Somali people inhabited? In fact, the Somali people have never been united under one state before. The closest thing to a Pan-Somali state before the current Federal Republic was the Ajuran Sultanate which covered a large portion of what would become Italian Somaliland. Plus I really don't think that Kenyan Somalis would rather be a part of the Federal Republic of Somalia than Kenya. They are no longer marginalised, and if anything their growing numbers will mean the North Eastern counties will be alocated more funds from the National Government.
The counties of Mandera, Wajir and Garissa are scarcely populated, so higher population growth will mean that these parts of the country will be unable to be ignored going forward. Kenyan Somalis are as much a part of our great nation as any other community within these borders. Politicians of that community are as patriotic as those from other corners of Kenya. We are moving forward together as one nation. Plus, even though the Somali people are separated by national borders, they can still be united culturally the same way Pokots in Kenya and Uganda are still united through blood despite belonging to different countries, same goes for the Maa community in KE and TZ. So I doubt that Kenyan Somalis will be eager to part with Kenya and join Somalia which will be probably missing the former territory north of Cape Guardaful that was governed by the British during the colonial period.
Anyway, what are your thoughts on the idea of a Pan-Somali ethnostate?
