Corona Virus Vaccine

Burner said:
Let start with:
How is the model flawed? And how do we know that particular model is the one being used for projections and not any other model?
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He just responded you you over here
Okiya said:
Nothing like pulling a spin. You're the one living in denial. So you're fixed at the fact that the models are right because the difference was one death? You need to look at the bigger picture about deaths.The models started at 1.2million Americans dying, then went to 200k. Yesterday they said 80k deaths. Look at hospitalizations numbers of the models vs actuals? Any comment on that? What about the number of ventilators being required?
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Kwani husomi?
 
Okiya said:
So @Nattydread let me put you facts. Feel free to counter them but stick to the topic. No memes.

1. On the vaccine backed by Bill Gates being tested today, here's one of the sources. Many others are available.

View attachment 8969
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Your initial premise is wrong. You cannot challenge people to 'debate' a flawed premise. Besides, what you call 'facts' are repetitions of the same flawed premise over and over.

Let me humour you and concede that projections were inaccurate. Do you have solutions for the disease that is ravaging the world?
 
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Okiya said:
The models started at 1.2million Americans dying, then went to 200k. Yesterday they said 80k deaths. Look at hospitalizations numbers of the models vs actuals? Any comment on that? What about the number of ventilators being required?
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I expect models to be revised as intervention methodologies change. to accommodate the effects of those changes.
 
Mwalimu-G said:
I expect models to be revised as intervention methodologies change. to accommodate the effects of those changes.
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Big LooooL. The model has factored the interventions and they still get the numbers wrong.
But let me help you. They used New York and New Jersey data to project for the entire USA. That's why the numbers are way off.
 
Mwalimu-G said:
I expect models to be revised as intervention methodologies change. to accommodate the effects of those changes.
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Right. @Okiya read this article. https://www.theatlantic.com/technol...avirus-models-arent-supposed-be-right/609271/
It is not a definite prediction of how things are going to go.

Okiya said:
The IMHE model being used by Dr. Fauci is public information
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Is there an official statement by the administration that this is the official or only model they are using?
 
Okiya said:
But let me help you. They used New York and New Jersey data to project for the entire USA. That's why the numbers are way off.
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how many times am I going to tell you that I didn't give any attention to the so-called models? Your statement here is wasted.
 
Burner said:
Is there an official statement by the administration that this is the official or only model they are using?
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I think this is evidence which model is being used.

20200407_102549.jpg
 
Okiya said:
They used New York and New Jersey data to project for the entire USA. That's why the numbers are way off.
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Now that you know that they were 'wrong' and that Bill Gates designed the virus in order to sell a vaccine and 'depopulate the earth' (as conspiracy theories put it), what should the USA do? Practically, not theoretically.

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"Why are your estimates different than those produced by other organizations? How are yours different?

Our model is designed to be a planning tool, and is informed by the shape that other COVID-19 outbreaks are taking, in terms of deaths, around the world and across the US. Other models may use other approaches, such as assuming a population where everyone was equally likely to interact with everyone else, and model different scenarios such as the absence of, or different levels of, social distancing. These models are useful for motivating action to prevent such worst-case scenarios, while our model is designed to specifically address the planning needs of hospital administrators and local governments."
www.healthdata.org

COVID-19

COVID-19 was first identified in December 2019 and was declared a global pandemic within months. It became the second-leading cause of death in 2021, causing a global decline in life expectancy.
www.healthdata.org www.healthdata.org

@Okiya does this help in understanding the deviation you are seeing in the actual numbers you see reported and what the model projects? And why the numbers are adjusted accordingly with the info coming in?
And wouldnt you think is prudent to be overprepared considering how bad it could get?
 
Nattydread said:
Wewe na conclusion zako nendeni dark debe mkajadikiane huko. Nothing is more useless than people who discuss discussants.
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:ROFLMAO: I know I can't win with you mzee, even with facts. I will stick to my useless dark debe lane.

I won't even be a discussant of discussants of Trump
 
@Okiya, predictive models inform planning only but are pretty useless for administrations like those of the UK and US which refuse to grasp the magnitude of the problem, it is a fact that before the "doomsday models" both administrations downplayed Covid19 up until they witnessed the ravaging in Italy then they realized they were on course to lose control, the models have been proven to be inaccurate but were correct in warning that health systems would be overwhelmed without serious social distancing restrictions which the US and the UK took too long to institute. Trump and yourself will claim keeping deaths below the 2million and the recently revised 200k mark is a huge achievement but no it is not, the Chinese with a population of more than a billion people and have had the virus with them longer than everyone else have been able to keep deaths below the 5000 mark, surely the "best healthcare system" in the most powerful nation on earth should do better, aye?

And on vaccines Bill Gates is right, a vaccine is the best solution but it will take more than one year to have one that works, maybe 2 for mass production and roll out. Containment should have been everyone's priority, it took time but we are all on the same page now.
 
Mr Black said:
@Okiya, predictive models inform planning only but are pretty useless for administrations like those of the UK and US which refuse to grasp the magnitude of the problem, it is a fact that before the "doomsday models" both administrations downplayed Covid19 up until they witnessed the ravaging in Italy then they realized they were on course to lose control, the models have been proven to be inaccurate but were correct in warning that health systems would be overwhelmed without serious social distancing restrictions which the US and the UK took too long to institute. Trump and yourself will claim keeping deaths below the 2million and the recently revised 200k mark is a huge achievement but no it is not, the Chinese with a population of more than a billion people and have had the virus with them longer than everyone else have been able to keep deaths below the 5000 mark, surely the "best healthcare system" in the most powerful nation on earth should do better, aye?

And on vaccines Bill Gates is right, a vaccine is the best solution but it will take more than one year to have one that works, maybe 2 for mass production and roll out. Containment should have been everyone's priority, it took time but we are all on the same page now.
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You believe the data from China? Alright.

You want to know how inaccurate the models are? The models are revised with the interventions in place. But a week later, they are still waay off.
 
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