Corona virus, just wondering out loud

T

The.Black.Templar

Elder Lister
Staff member
The govt said that they expect 10,000 cases by end of April.

Clearly they have or are using the wrong model, and it seems there is no intention of changing it so far.

This model is clearly wrong by atleast a whole 90%, is it a case of people preaching doomsday everyday? or is it a case of govt threatening kenyans kama kawaida? Or is it a sign that these poeple are just winging it without a plan?

Screenshot_20200419-085901_Instagram.jpg
 
The actual cases are most likely to be higher given only a small percentage of the population has been tested mainly comprising of those with travel history or exhibiting symptoms of the disease. Tests on samples of the population might give a clearer picture which would then inform the next steps of action.
 
Ramses said:
The actual cases are most likely to be higher given only a small percentage of the population has been tested mainly comprising of those with travel history or exhibiting symptoms of the disease. Tests on samples of the population might give a clearer picture which would then inform the next steps of action.
Click to expand...
But that is just a guess, yes? The basis of them saying that high number. Is there a plan to do mass testing? How will it be conducted given that they only brought in an additional 200k testing kits. Do we all line up in the streets ama?
 
Sampling would be a good starting point rather than a census to give an general indication of numbers..... There is a possibility that many in the population are infected but do not present severity.... Then it's possible to determine whether to continue with curfews or go for mass testing, enforce lockdowns......
 
Ramses said:
Sampling would be a good starting point rather than a census to give an general indication of numbers..... There is a possibility that many in the population are infected but do not present severity.... Then it's possible to determine whether to continue with curfews or go for mass testing, enforce lockdowns......
Click to expand...
They are currently doing 1000 tests per day are these enough samples?
 
bigDog said:
People are jobless because we need to stop physical interactions that spread this disease. Where did you get the December date from?
Click to expand...

He does have a point, we cannot stay at home forever, we should have begun mass testing as soon as Nairobi went into lockdown to get a clear picture of the infection rate in our "epicentres", as it stands no one knows how many cases we might have which means whatever policies we are relying on are based on assumptions rather than actual data.

What we need is mass testing especially for intercounty travellers, healthworkers, security officers and everyone serving the public, we need to scale up training for medics, we need more PPE, we need more isolation wards, we need a track and trace system, the lockdown was meant to buy time to put measures in place because we fauled to have them earlier on, if we do not have them by the end of the lockdown we will need another lockdown which would be a needless waste of time and opportunities
 
Last edited:
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top