America and Israel Strikes Iran : Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei Dead

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Is the U.S. Repeating the Mistakes That Led to Forever Wars?​

The Iran conflict is likely to be far shorter than the war in Iraq, but experts say the U.S. is running into some of the same pitfalls​

When Peter Mansoor, an ex-U.S. Army colonel who did two long tours in Iraq, considers the unfolding war in Iran, he worries the U.S. risks getting dragged into another long and costly fight in the Middle East.

“It’s déjà vu all over again,” said Mansoor, who was a brigade commander in Iraq shortly after the 2003 invasion and later a top aide to Gen. David Petraeus. He is now a professor of military history at Ohio State University.

The war is in its fourth week, with the U.S. and Israel using airstrikes to pummel Iran’s leadership and military, hobbling the country’s ability to project power. The campaign, which the administration initially suggested could take between four and six weeks, could end at any point. The Iranian regime could buckle, President Trump could grow frustrated and walk away, or both sides could de-escalate and claim victory.

Trump has signaled he may be looking for an off-ramp, calling off threatened strikes on Iran’s energy facilities this week so that the sides could negotiate. Tehran will have a say in how the conflict ends, however, and Iranian officials are boasting they have the Americans trapped in a quagmire.

Whatever the outcome of the talks, hopes of a military campaign that is both quick and decisive are fading, and there are early warning signs that the Iran war has succumbed to some of the same pitfalls that plagued Iraq and other overseas conflicts, including questions over unclear aims, insufficient planning for contingencies, and overly optimistic assumptions.

 

How the Iran war could change the US relationship with Gulf states​


Bottom lines up front

The next phase of the Iran war is highly uncertain, with Gulf states at the center of possible escalation as both likely targets and important US partners.

Gulf countries previously helped manage tensions with Iran through mediation, diplomacy, and economic ties, but these dynamics are now shifting.

Factors to watch include expanded Iranian attacks, possible Houthi involvement, fractures within the GCC, and rising domestic effects in Gulf states.

WASHINGTON—The next phase of the Iran war will be defined by uncertainty. At the moment, there is uncertainty over whether the United States, Israel, or Iran will escalate the conflict further. This phase could end abruptly if the conflict does escalate, or it might persist for some time, since even a lull in attacks or a deal might not sustainably address the fundamental issues that led to the outbreak of conflict. What is known, however, is that Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) member states sit at the center of this uncertainty. It is those states—Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates (UAE)—that Iran would likely target with even more drones, missiles, and potentially further asymmetric attacks if the war intensified. And, more importantly, it will be those states that will share their neighborhood with the Iran that emerges from this conflict.

www.atlanticcouncil.org

How the Iran war could change the US relationship with Gulf states

The war appears to have opened the door to a new wave of uncertainty in the Gulf, which might threaten the very regional stability and economic prosperity it is meant to ensure.
www.atlanticcouncil.org www.atlanticcouncil.org
 

Exclusive: China's top chipmaker has supplied chipmaking tech to Iran military, US officials say​


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WASHINGTON, March 26 (Reuters) - SMIC, China's largest chipmaker, has sent chipmaking tools to Iran's military, two senior Trump ‌administration officials said on Thursday, raising questions about Beijing's stance in the month-old U.S.-Israeli conflict with Iran.

SMIC (0981.HK), opens new tab, which has been heavily sanctioned by the U.S. government over alleged ties to the Chinese military, began sending the tools to Iran roughly a year ago and "we have no reason to believe that any of this has stopped," one of the officials said.

 

Exclusive: U.S. can only confirm about a third of Iran's missile arsenal destroyed, sources say​


WASHINGTON, March 27 (Reuters) - The United States can only determine with certainty that it has destroyed about a third of Iran's vast missile arsenal as the U.S. and Israeli war on the country nears its one-month mark, according to five people familiar with the U.S. intelligence.

The status of around another third is less clear but bombings likely damaged, destroyed or buried those missiles in underground tunnels and ‌bunkers, four of the sources said. The sources spoke on condition of anonymity given the sensitive nature of the information.

One of the sources said the intelligence was similar for Iran's drone capability, saying there was some degree of certainty about a third having been destroyed.
The assessment, which has not been previously reported, shows that while most of Iran's missiles are either destroyed or inaccessible, Tehran still has a significant missile inventory and may be able to recover some buried or damaged missiles once fighting stops.

 

Trump says Iran's 'present' to US was allowing 10 oil tankers through Hormuz​

WASHINGTON, March 26 (Reuters) - U.S. President Donald Trumpsaid on Thursday that Iran was letting 10 oil tankers transit the Strait of Hormuz as an ‌apparent goodwill gesture in negotiations.

Trump made the comments at a Cabinet meeting in the White House, elaborating on what he had previously described as a "present" from Iran.

"They said, to show you the fact that we're ⁠real and solid and we're there, we're going to let you have eight boats of oil, eight boats, eight big boats of oil," Trump said. "I guess they were right, and they were real, and I think they were Pakistani-flagged... It ended up being 10 boats."

 

Evidence Points to US Scattering Mines over Iranian Village​

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The US appears to have deployed the Gator Scatterable Mine system over Kafari, a village near Shiraz, in southern Iran overnight. Several people were killed according to Iranian media.

Three experts told Bellingcat the munitions appeared to be air-delivered US-made Gator anti-tank mines.

The US is the only participant in the Iran war known to possess Gator Scatterable Mines.

Bellingcat asked the US Department of Defense whether it had dropped the mines overnight, but did not receive a response at time of publication.

www.bellingcat.com

Evidence Points to US Scattering Mines over Iranian Village - bellingcat

US appears to have deployed the Gator Scatterable Mine system over Kafari, a village near Shiraz, Iran.
www.bellingcat.com www.bellingcat.com
 

Children as young as 12 can join war support, IRGC says​


An official from Iran’s Revolutionary Guards said the minimum age for participation in war-related support roles has been lowered to 12, according to remarks aired on state media.

Rahim Nadali, a cultural official with the Guards in Tehran, said an initiative called “For Iran” was recruiting participants to assist with activities such as patrols, checkpoints and logistics.

“Given that the age of those coming forward has dropped and they are asking to take part, we lowered the minimum age to 12,” he said, adding that 12- and 13-year-olds could now take part if they wished.

The comments were broadcast as part of state media coverage of the war effort.

The announcement has revived concerns over the use of minors in security-related roles in Iran.

 

Trump has permanently damaged the world – how the Iran war will be felt for years​

What happens next depends on how long the war lasts, if the Strait of Hormuz can be reopened and what takes place after the fighting stops
The damage wreaked by Donald Trump’s war on Iran may now be so extensive and wide-reaching that its repercussions will be felt globally in the months and years, analysts have said.

The US President appears to be scrambling for an off-ramp to end the war he and Israel launched nearly a month ago, claiming that members of his administration are now negotiating a ceasefire with Iran after “productive conversations”.

Iran denounced the talks as “fake news” and accused Trump of negotiating with himself.

inews.co.uk

Trump has permanently damaged the world - how the Iran war will be felt for years

What happens next depends on how long the war lasts, if the Strait of Hormuz can be reopened and what takes place after the fighting stops
inews.co.uk inews.co.uk
 

Trump and Modi Had a Call About the Iran War. Elon Musk Joined Them.​

Mr. Musk’s participation was notable because it is rare for a private citizen to be on a call between heads of state. It also suggests that Mr. Musk is back on better terms with the president.

Elon Musk participated in a phone call on Tuesday with President Trump and Prime Minister Narendra Modi of India, an unusual appearance by a private citizen on a call between two heads of state during a wartime crisis.

The inclusion of Mr. Musk, confirmed by two U.S. officials, suggests that the world’s richest man is back on better terms with the president. The two men had a falling out last summer following the billionaire’s departure from the government, where he had been tasked with slashing the work force. They appear to have smoothed things over in recent months.

 
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Africa View Facts

Iran has urged Kenya 🇰🇪 not to support United States–Israel actions in the Middle East. The Iranian mission dismissed claims that the Strait of Hormuz is closed, calling them false propaganda meant...
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