Today's economic news

[Okiya]

The good:
1. Shilling posts single day gain in over a decade

The bad:
1. Lovers buy fake flowers during valentines.

The Ugly:

1. Firms to lay off 15% of staff on tough economy

2. Outlook on Kenya's banks downgraded to negative due to increase in bad loans.

3. Government to drop minimum prices of tea reversing gains made by Peter Munya.

Conclusion:
Bottom up economic model has BACKFIRED.

 

[Othello]

It is evident the markets were mostly driven by fear of imminent default rather than fundamentals, hence the dramatic gain when the govt floated the Eurobond. It also means tungedefault hii kitu ingeruka hadi huko 220-250.
But really, when did we reach here? We Borrowed at 6%, then forced to borrow at 11% to repay the 6% loan to avoid default. I think it should be in katiba that no borrowing beyond 2.5% of GDP unless there's a serious crisis such as a pandemic, war, or a serious national disaster. In the penal code, the punishment for reckless borrowing should be punishable by death. Saizi kuna ghasia tungekuwa tunapiga mawe pale uhuru park.

 

[Mwalimu-G]

I think it should be in katiba that no borrowing beyond 2.5% of GDP unless there's a serious crisis such as a pandemic, war, or a serious national disaster. I

Your parliament turned itself into the executive's bitch.

 

[Othello]

Your parliament turned itself into the executive's bitch.

And that's why it should be in katiba. We'd not be where we are today if the 2013-2022 MPs exercised their roles.

 

[Othello]

Yesterday in the morning, equity was selling $$ at ksh. 158. By the end of the day, it was 153. Right now, they are selling at 140 . Hii ni maajabu

 

[Mwalimu-G]

Yesterday in the morning, equity was selling $$ at ksh. 158. By the end of the day, it was 153. Right now, they are selling at 140 . Hii ni maajabu

Kwa hivo tuingojee 120?

 

[Othello]

Kwa hivo tuingojee 120?

It's possible it will hit, and if not, it will take ages before going up again.

 

[Othello]

 

[Okiya]

Yesterday in the morning, equity was selling $$ at ksh. 158. By the end of the day, it was 153. Right now, they are selling at 140 . Hii ni maajabu

Iko watu waliunda pesa kabisa. Na iko watu watachomeka kabisa. Anyway, I'm the team supporting the reduction

 

[Okiya]

View attachment 92563

A spread of 21 shillings! Iko watu wanacheza Sana na soko

 

[Swansea]

It's possible it will hit, and if not, it will take ages before going up again.

Keep dreaming.

There is something happening. There is some manipulation that is taking place.

The Kenyan shilling cannot just suddenly rally and appreciate that much against the dollar in such a short time.

 

[upepo]

Keep dreaming.

There is something happening. There is some manipulation that is taking place.

The Kenyan shilling cannot just suddenly rally and appreciate that much against the dollar in such a short time.

It could simply mean a huge dollar amount was in the hands of speculators and hoarders. These are the kinds who will cash out at the slightest hint of possible losses.
Why am I suspecting a certain mzee bought dollars after selling his safari club, and is now stuck in a pit latrine contemplating whether he should jump in and end it all.

 

[upepo]

View attachment 92563

Its another way of saying they are not buying more dollars until they clear what they were hoarding.

 

[Othello]

It could simply mean a huge dollar amount was in the hands of speculators and hoarders. These are the kinds who will cash out at the slightest hint of possible losses.
Why am I suspecting a certain mzee bought dollars after selling his safari club, and is now stuck in a pit latrine contemplating whether he should jump in and end it all.

like this one

 

[Mwalimu-G]

It's possible it will hit, and if not, it will take ages before going up again.

View attachment 92563

You are naive.

 

[Kasaman]

The good:
1. Shilling posts single day gain in over a decade

The bad:
1. Lovers buy fake flowers during valentines.

The Ugly:

1. Firms to lay off 15% of staff on tough economy

2. Outlook on Kenya's banks downgraded to negative due to increase in bad loans.

3. Government to drop minimum prices of tea reversing gains made by Peter Munya.

Conclusion:
Bottom up economic model has BACKFIRED.

View attachment 92544

You forgot to mention about coffee sector. We got good news too.

 

[bigDog]

Keep dreaming.

There is something happening. There is some manipulation that is taking place.

The Kenyan shilling cannot just suddenly rally and appreciate that much against the dollar in such a short time.

This is the most plausible explanation. Occam's razor kind of. There was even a hash tag on X promoting selling off dollars. There was panic selling of dollars today by unsophisticated speculators. They will be mightily screwed by this volatility! Alafu CBK turns up kuokota majeruhi!

There is nothing fundamental that has changed kwa economy. The government just kicked the can down the road. We still have debts that need servicing! Treasury bills are at 16.5% and then we borrowed Eurobond at 11% to repay a 6% debt. Zakayo just threw future economic growth under the bus.

 

[bigDog]

It could simply mean a huge dollar amount was in the hands of speculators and hoarders. These are the kinds who will cash out at the slightest hint of possible losses.
Why am I suspecting a certain mzee bought dollars after selling his safari club, and is now stuck in a pit latrine contemplating whether he should jump in and end it all.

Let me borrow a story! Have you ever heard about a "The Post Tortoise"?

You are walking along your village path and then find a tortoise balanced on top of a post. It must be puzzling, right?

You know he didn't get up there by himself, he doesn't belong up there, he doesn't know what to do while he's up there, he's elevated beyond his ability to function, and you just wonder what kind of dumb arse put him up there to begin with.

Thats the Kenya shilling today!