This projection looks not off

Da Vinci

Elder Lister
Requires just a slight adjustment. Imo, in central, Ruto might get around 3.2 million and a countrywide total of 10 million. Raila might get the projected number. Hio ingine yoote looks on point to me.


20220710_112453.jpg
 

wrongturn

Elder Lister
Just another pedestrian analysis . In stats you start from known values to unknown.
Start from here for 2017.

IMG_20220709_145049.png
 

Mwalimu-G

Elder Lister
It is off. Kama ni Embu watu wanaanza ku-thaw towards Baba na Mama then be sure things will be different from your extremes.
Eastern with 2.1 m voters in 2017 you give them only 1.1m to turn out to vote?
 

wrongturn

Elder Lister
These are the numbers @Da Vinci per county. now do an analysis based on them ,Give or take the same turnout as 2017 be realistic as possible on the voting patterns.

Below is the table showing total registered voters per county in 2022:
COUNTYCounty Total Votes
MOMBASA
654,063​
KWALE
320,782​
KILIFI
582,631​
TANA RIVER
137,661​
LAMU
79,157​
TAITA TAVETA
179,234​
GARISSA
207,435​
WAJIR
196,466​
MANDERA
211,098​
MARSABIT
164,864​
ISIOLO
86,143​
MERU
780,858​
THARAKA NITHI
234,618​
EMBU
337,627​
KITUI
532,267​
MACHAKOS
690,243​
MAKUENI
474,493​
NYANDARUA
362,357​
NYERI
492,046​
KIRINYAGA
378,580​
MURANG’A
628,416​
KIAMBU
1,293,309​
TURKANA
241,583​
WEST POKOT
214,574​
SAMBURU
98,081​
TRANS NZOIA
395,741​
UASIN GISHU
530,993​
ELGEYO MARAKWET
211,352​
NANDI
402,856​
BARINGO
271,977​
LAIKIPIA
265,842​
NAKURU
1,050,367​
NAROK
397,618​
KAJIADO
463,546​
KERICHO
429,288​
BOMET
370,399​
KAKAMEGA
841,139​
VIHIGA
304,755​
BUNGOMA
644,233​
BUSIA
406,569​
SIAYA
518,056​
KISUMU
616,871​
HOMA BAY
537,108​
MIGORI
454,954​
KISII
638,603​
NYAMIRA
316,389​
NAIROBI
2,505,190​
22,152,432​
 

The.Black.Templar

Elder Lister
Staff member
People here are speaking as if ruto has ever ran for president before which is a false narrative....the fact that an outsider is scaring people this much againt someone who has lost all the elections says alot. People cannot reject someone for the past 30 years only to accept him in two months. Ruto is yet to be rejected or accepted at a presidential level...a fact that is unknown
 

pop in

Elder Lister
Requires just a slight adjustment. Imo, in central, Ruto might get around 3.2 million and a countrywide total of 10 million. Raila might get the projected number. Hio ingine yoote looks on point to me.


View attachment 65977
Mimi nangoja riftvalley this are the numbers

TURKANA241,583
WEST POKOT214,574
SAMBURU98,081
TRANS NZOIA395,741
UASIN GISHU530,993
ELGEYO MARAKWET211,352
NANDI402,856
BARINGO271,977
LAIKIPIA265,842
NAKURU1,050,367
NAROK397,618
KAJIADO463,546
KERICHO429,288
BOMET370,399

TOTAL 5,344,217

On election night hapa ndio complains zitaanzia

 
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