Economists Saidia

Jug

Elder Lister
"The National Treasury has projected Kenya’s economy to grow by 6.6% from an estimated growth of 0.6% in 2020, the highest growth rate in at least a decade, according to the International Monetary Fund (IMF).

This is occasioned by a speedy vaccination program even as the services sector begins to rebound from a brutal pandemic fallout.

The government is moving to ramp up vaccination, with doses from its order of at least 13 million Johnson & Johnson shots expected to start arriving this month, in a bid to avoid any more economy-crippling lockdowns.

Treasury CS Ukur Yatani says the reopening of hotels, restaurants and an improvement in travel due to the easing of movement restrictions will help the services industry to lift its contribution to GDP growth to a projected average of 6% this year. According to a central bank survey, the number of hotel workers climbed to 62% of pre-pandemic levels in July.

Yatani further says that the budget deficit is expected to narrow to 5.6% of the gross domestic product in 2022-23 from a target of 7.5% of GDP in the year that started July 1. That partly depends on the authorities achieving a growth target in ordinary revenue of 20.6% in the next fiscal year, while reducing expenditure as a portion of GDP."

Source:- https://kenyanwallstreet.com/treasury-forecasts-economy-to-expand-6-6/

@Okiya ebu elimisha mimi saidi. Hii hesabu haingiani na vitu kwa ground
 

Clemens

Elder Lister
If the lines I saw at KNH helipad are anything to go by, vaccination was needed by frontline workers it's only that it wasn't available, next week, all frontline workers: hospitality industry, teachers, transport industry, public and private front office workers and security officers MUST be vaccinated. The uptake of the vaccines will be swifter than it currently is.
 
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macho

Lister
If the lines I saw at KNH helipad are anything to go by, vaccination was needed by frontline workers it's only that it wasn't available, next week, all frontline workers: hospitality industry, teachers, transport industry, public and private front office workers and security officers MUST be vaccinated. The uptake of the antivirus will be swifter than it currently is.
Antivirus gani tena?
 

Denis Young

Elder Lister
These estimates are overly ambitious to say the least.

There are so many assumptions being made and they all rely on expectations that GDP will grow over the current financial year. Millions have lost jobs. Taxes are through the roof. The cost of production is similarly high. Deficit this year was close to a trillion.

They are estimating that deficit will narrow vs GDP. This doesn't necessarily mean that they are going to borrow less to supplement the budget.
Finally, expecting ordinary revenue to grow by 20% is not that far fetched. A proper vaccination campaign could see businesses return, but the question still remains: What policies are in place to enable them to flourish and generate jobs? Otherwise, should we just be expecting new taxes to justify a growth in OR?
 

Anglututu

Elder Lister
These estimates are overly ambitious to say the least.

There are so many assumptions being made and they all rely on expectations that GDP will grow over the current financial year. Millions have lost jobs. Taxes are through the roof. The cost of production is similarly high. Deficit this year was close to a trillion.

They are estimating that deficit will narrow vs GDP. This doesn't necessarily mean that they are going to borrow less to supplement the budget.
Finally, expecting ordinary revenue to grow by 20% is not that far fetched. A proper vaccination campaign could see businesses return, but the question still remains: What policies are in place to enable them to flourish and generate jobs? Otherwise, should we just be expecting new taxes to justify a growth in OR?
Couldn't agree more.
The only con in all this economy issue, is that covid is what has brought the economy down.
If we go back and see, the world almost going into recession before covid even came into play.
 

shocks

Elder Lister
Revenue is most definitely not rising by 20%. On economic growth, its hard to call that one, juzi nimeona figures za mobile money transfers za Jan - June, 53% growth. Even accounting for a vey bad April - June 2020, that growth points towrds something. Then nikaona EABL figures, 2020-2021 turnover was 4% above 2018-2019 (non corona year). Then finally nikaona James Mwangi anasema he intends to open 60 more branches in the country, a 31% increase. So I'm cautiously optimistic going forward
 
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