I consider myself a humble investor. I have some idle cash and I have never shied away from buying shares when things were more predictable. Right now, I am in a dilemma. I can see many bargains on the exchange. At the same time, there is a global pandemic risk that has hit first-world countries hard. There is a possibility that it will hit Africa harder due to poorer healthcare systems. Would you invest and assume that the virus will not impact the underlying businesses significantly, or would you wait (continue accumulating cash) until the virus risk is dealt with??
Critical
- Thread starter $$$
- Start date
Yes. Most of my net worth is from investing in stocks. Even the real estate I bought from proceeds of the stock market.
I am considering waiting for H1 or Q3 earnings (banks), before taking the plunge. I think by then I will have an idea of how the virus has affected the local businesses. Buying right now is akin to flying blind. Although the prices are extremely juicy right now.
Last edited:
I saw that English Point Marina was being taken over by KCB. Things must be tough. Na vile that hotel is expensive.
MbitikaZetu
Elder Lister
It's a wait and see approach for now.
StewMaker
Lister
KCB=GOK
@Okiya my idea above is paying off. Stocks look cheap in the stock market but they haven't factored in the covid 19 impact on business. Check the branches closed by stanchart and NCBA. Most of them are in prime locations (today's BD). Nitangoja Q3 before taking the plunge. Current prices look like bargains but they don't factor in the impact of the crisis. Prices will go significantly lower if the virus persists. Then, those buying now will realize it wasn't a bargain.
Stocks are a bargain now when you compare to their before prices but the virus makes the market very unpredictable. You may buy banking shares now then come November huge provisions start coming in that may even wipe off their capital. My belief is that the only time one will make fair predictions is when the vaccine is out.
9% of 1.9-2.1% is negligible. Transactions costs don't affect investors. Hiyo itaumiza high frequency traders, not investors.
I know all about the bitcoin halving. 10% of my portfolio is dedicated to BTC/crypto. Newbies will get dumped on. Hii kitu inarudi 5k and that's when I will buy.
This decision was timely. KCB is currently restructuring 80 billion worth of loans. Most banks will take a big hit from the pandemic. So will other listed companies. I think my decision to wait for Q3 was the right one. Expect even lower stock prices.
KCB restructures Sh80bn loans on corona cash crunch
KCB Group has restructured loans worth Sh80 billion in Kenya.
www.businessdailyafrica.com