How deadly is the corona virus? By Dr. John Lee

[Okiya]

"The simplest way to judge whether we have an exceptionally lethal disease is to look at the death rates. Are more people dying than we would expect to die anyway in a given week or month? Statistically, we would expect about 51,000 to die in Britain this month. At the time of writing, 422 deaths are linked to Covid-19 — so 0.8 per cent of that expected total. "


One pretty clear indicator is death. If a new infection is causing many extra people to die (as opposed to an infection present in people who would have died anyway) then it will cause an increase in the overall death rate. But we have yet to see any statistical evidence for excess deaths, in any part of the world.

How deadly is the coronavirus? It's still far from clear | The Spectator

 

[MutheeK]

There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics

Benjamin Disraeli

 

[shocks]

does the same apply to Italy and Spain?

 

[Nattydread]

@Okiya, once the 'alternative truth' virus gets you, you keep dredging up factoids from the most obscure sources to justify the wrong road you took days ago.

Prince Charles is in quarantine. The Brits are isolating, sanitizing, locking down and sourcing ventilators like everybody else. That is what matters now.

 

[upepo]

Some subjects ought to be made mandatory in school. These fringe voices would have no audience if the masses had a good grasp of the relevant knowledge.

 

[Modest]

Looking at normal death rates in comparison is shortsighted.Given there was no quarantine would we be looking at the same?

 

[It's Me Scumbag]

Here is the full article...

How deadly is the coronavirus? It's still far from clear | The Spectator

Notice how the good doctor covers his ass by saying that "There is room for different interpretations of the data"

What @Okiya has is Dr. Johnson's interpretation of the data only...which does not necessarily make it the holy grail of the corona thing in the UK.

 

[Okiya]

does the same apply to Italy and Spain?

Let me quote what Professor Walter Ricciardi, scientific adviser to Italy's minister of health said.

"On re-evaluation by the National Institute of Health, only 12 per cent of death certificates have shown a direct casualty from corona virus"

 

[Okiya]

Prince Charles is in quarantine..

Prince Charles got out of self isolation yesterday.

 

[shocks]

Let me quote what Professor Walter Ricciardi, scientific adviser to Italy's minister of health said.

"On re-evaluation by the National Institute of Health, only 12 per cent of death certificates have shown a direct casualty from corona virus"

talking about no. of deaths not being higher as compared to similar periods in previous years, does it hold in these two countries

 

[Okiya]

Looking at normal death rates in comparison is shortsighted.Given there was no quarantine would we be looking at the same?

All am saying is that measures taken such as closing of US and UK economies based on doomsday models were extreme.

 

[Modest]

All am saying is that measures taken such as closing of US and UK economies based on doomsday models were extreme.

People are a resource, I am Negan,
Plus economies can always be rebuilt but people....

 

[Okiya]

talking about no. of deaths not being higher as compared to similar periods in previous years, does it hold in these two countries

"The predictions of the models don't match the reality on the ground in either China, South Korea, or Italy. We're about 5x the size of Italy. If we were Italy, and you did those divisions, Italy should have close to 400k deaths. They're not close to achieving that." – Dr. Deborah Birx

 

[Okiya]

People are a resource, I am Negan,
Plus economies can always be rebuilt but people....

My point is that the doomsday models were overhyped. This led to unnecessarily closing of economies.
Don't you think as a result of falling for these doomsday models there is even going to be more deaths e.g. from suicides or from inability to access medical care due to losing their income?

 

[Nattydread]

All am saying is that measures taken such as closing of US and UK economies based on doomsday models were extreme.

You have used the term 'doomsday model' extensively. What should have been done to prevent New York going from 1 death in mid march to 1500 just two weeks later?

If you're in Kenya, you need to apply your modelling skills there. It is coming, bigly.

 

[Burner]

You have used the term 'doomsday model' extensively. What should have been done to prevent New York going from 1 death in mid march to 1500 just two weeks later?

If you're in Kenya, you need to apply your modelling skills there. It is coming, bigly.

He seems to believe this virus isn't as bad as it is being made out to be or that the steps being taken are out of fear.

Im curious about something @Okiya. forget what the media is saying since you are obsessed with "doomsday models". What would you suggest is the best course of action for any nation based on what information you have and/or believe?