With Mrima gone, what ways can WSR win clean in 2027?

mzeiya

mzeiya

Elder Lister
In 2022, WSR got 2.94 Million Votes (77% of Votes cast) from Mt. Kenya Region while RAO got 0.85 Million (22%)

If Mt. Kenya slips away from WSR he then needs to outperform his 2022 as follows in some regions

1. Increase his performance in Western Region from 39% in 2022 to a minimum of 85% Votes

This would add an estimated 760,000 Votes to his basket

2. Increase his performance in Nyanza (Kisumu, Siaya, Homa Bay and Migori Counties) from 4.5% in 2022 to 96% in 2027

This would add an estimated 1.4 Million to his basket

3. Increase his performance in North and Upper Eastern Region from 36% in 2022 to 80% in 2027

This would add an estimated 250,000 votes to his basket

4. Increase his performance in the Coast Region from 34% in 2022 to 70% in 2027

This would add into his basket by nearly 370,000 votes

5. Outperform his Maa Nation Votes from 45% in 2022 to at least 50% in 2027

This would add into his basket an additional 60,000 votes

6. Outperform his Kalenjin Nation votes from 86% in 2022 to at least 90% in 2027

That would add about 70,000 votes to his basket

Cumulatively, this would add to his basket about 2.8 Million Votes

Several Assumptions have been made here

A. Kalonzo and Matiang'i are on the ballot either jointly or otherwise. Thus assuming WSR loses the votes from Gusii and Kamba Nations

B. Voters turnout remains constant by Region as it was in 2022 hence no variation

C. The Prof. will have little impacts in the Eastern side of the Mountain

#DataSpeaks

Author
 
mzeiya said:
Facts.
He would have to rig and cry more tears than in 2013 to even have a semblance of a win.
Uzuri he's surrounded by brain-dead sycophants who are so out of touch with le ground.
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True.

There's a way you can predict some events based on what you observe...
 
Loses Mt Kenya to who? If the assumption is that Rigathi inherits Mt Kenya, then to whom does he donate these votes considering he is ineligible?

Who do we have here:


It's not looking good for her anti-corruption credentials. Regardless, one could envision a Karua candidacy. Maybe she could form an alliance with Omtatah, but then who would hold the banner?

That team would seemingly take a chunk of the Kikuyu and most of the Gen Z vote, but how would the do on the rest of the country assuming a Matiangi candidacy?

We have already seen on the polls here somehow kura za Omtatah have vanished and shifted to Matiangi, which in itself is just funny. How quickly people shift their allegiance from the clean candidate to a corrupt, murderous individual with obvious dictatorial tendancies because he is a tough 'performer'. 😅 It is safe to say, Matiangi would be prefered over the the Karua, Omtatah matrix.

That would then leave Ruto vs Matiangi as the two horses. If that were the case, Matiangi would be dusted by morning.

Not only would the kikuyu and Gen Z vote be split, you would probably have apathy in those demographics giving Ruto an upperhand.

Furthermore, if Raila gets the AU seat, Raila's constituency would all shift to Ruto. If Kindiki was still his running mate, the Mt Kenya east vote would be his too. If the economy is recovered by then, SGR under construction, Nairobi- Nakuru dual carriage under construction, Afcon in the new Talanta stadium and improved Kasarani it will be a white wash by dusk.
 
Denis Young said:
If the assumption is that Rigathi inherits Mt Kenya
Click to expand...
Shida yako huwa unajitengenezea hypotheses zako mwenyewe.
1737812986346.webp
 
Denis Young said:
Loses Mt Kenya to who? If the assumption is that Rigathi inherits Mt Kenya, then to whom does he donate these votes considering he is ineligible?

Who do we have here:


It's not looking good for her anti-corruption credentials. Regardless, one could envision a Karua candidacy. Maybe she could form an alliance with Omtatah, but then who would hold the banner?

That team would seemingly take a chunk of the Kikuyu and most of the Gen Z vote, but how would the do on the rest of the country assuming a Matiangi candidacy?

We have already seen on the polls here somehow kura za Omtatah have vanished and shifted to Matiangi, which in itself is just funny. How quickly people shift their allegiance from the clean candidate to a corrupt, murderous individual with obvious dictatorial tendancies because he is a tough 'performer'. 😅 It is safe to say, Matiangi would be prefered over the the Karua, Omtatah matrix.

That would then leave Ruto vs Matiangi as the two horses. If that were the case, Matiangi would be dusted by morning.

Not only would the kikuyu and Gen Z vote be split, you would probably have apathy in those demographics giving Ruto an upperhand.

Furthermore, if Raila gets the AU seat, Raila's constituency would all shift to Ruto. If Kindiki was still his running mate, the Mt Kenya east vote would be his too. If the economy is recovered by then, SGR under construction, Nairobi- Nakuru dual carriage under construction, Afcon in the new Talanta stadium and improved Kasarani it will be a white wash by dusk.
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Wake up from utopia land brother, nashuku wewe ni that fool Wamumbi guy, out of touch with the reality shida yenyu ni gachagua
 
mzeiya said:
People using common sense.
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Hehehe...kaka get over yourself and your emotions. You will spend the next 2.5 years na hasira hyping up social media wanking only to be punched in the face by reality.

Just tell us where you think Mt Kenya votes go? Give us your logic driven hypotheses.
 
pop in said:
Exactly they are eager to present Rutos loosing numbers but hawezi tupatia the NAME of the winning candidate with his numbers
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It is not even that difficult. They told us Omtatah is their candidate. But in their recent KL poll all those Omtatah votes he got a while ago have shifted to Matiangi.

Can these people even be trusted? 😅😅
 
Denis Young said:
Hehehe...kaka get over yourself and your emotions. You will spend the next 2.5 years na hasira hyping up social media wanking only to be punched in the face by reality.

Just tell us where you think Mt Kenya votes go? Give us your logic driven hypotheses.
Click to expand...
Hehe brathe unasikia vitu unasema kweli ama akili imejaa echo juu ya kichwa kuwa empty?
 
Denis Young said:
It is not even that difficult. They told us Omtatah is their candidate. But in their recent KL poll all those Omtatah votes he got a while ago have shifted to Matiangi.

Can these people even be trusted? 😅😅
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It's okay that not all of us learnt some statistics, but one cannot take a study of people who can fit in a single room and project it to an entire nation of 50 million+. The sample size has to be significant at least, and there are much more factors to be taken into consideration. At best, the polls measure views of people who decide to visit this site which is useful but not definitive.
 
DeepInYourMind said:
It's okay that not all of us learnt some statistics, but one cannot take a study of people who can fit in a single room and project it to an entire nation of 50 million+. The sample size has to be significant at least, and there are much more factors to be taken into consideration. At best, the polls measure views of people who decide to visit this site which is useful but not definitive.
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Who is extrapolating to the entire country? I was just referencing the double speak. We have been told on this platform Ruto is corrupt and a killer and therefore the solution is to vote for Okiya Omtatah.
Screenshot_20250125_193340.webp

However, as soon as Matiangi started looking like an option suddenly Omtatah's votes in the poll go from a high of 22 to around 10 votes and Matiangi's sky rocket?
Screenshot_20250125_193305.webp


Matiangi, the guy who gave us river yala and kidnappings and left power as a dollar billionaire.
 
mzeiya said:
In 2022, WSR got 2.94 Million Votes (77% of Votes cast) from Mt. Kenya Region while RAO got 0.85 Million (22%)

If Mt. Kenya slips away from WSR he then needs to outperform his 2022 as follows in some regions

1. Increase his performance in Western Region from 39% in 2022 to a minimum of 85% Votes

This would add an estimated 760,000 Votes to his basket

2. Increase his performance in Nyanza (Kisumu, Siaya, Homa Bay and Migori Counties) from 4.5% in 2022 to 96% in 2027

This would add an estimated 1.4 Million to his basket

3. Increase his performance in North and Upper Eastern Region from 36% in 2022 to 80% in 2027

This would add an estimated 250,000 votes to his basket

4. Increase his performance in the Coast Region from 34% in 2022 to 70% in 2027

This would add into his basket by nearly 370,000 votes

5. Outperform his Maa Nation Votes from 45% in 2022 to at least 50% in 2027

This would add into his basket an additional 60,000 votes

6. Outperform his Kalenjin Nation votes from 86% in 2022 to at least 90% in 2027

That would add about 70,000 votes to his basket

Cumulatively, this would add to his basket about 2.8 Million Votes

Several Assumptions have been made here

A. Kalonzo and Matiang'i are on the ballot either jointly or otherwise. Thus assuming WSR loses the votes from Gusii and Kamba Nations

B. Voters turnout remains constant by Region as it was in 2022 hence no variation

C. The Prof. will have little impacts in the Eastern side of the Mountain

#DataSpeaks

Author
Click to expand...
One problem I think is Kenyans, like the author of this, are too focused on politicking and power games, yet end up making the worst of decisions during actual elections. I wish the focus would be more on how the country is being run. The debt, how much is lost through corruption, why the kenyan economy is falling behind while the neighbours are moving ahead, why hardworking kenyans are closing down businesses and losing jobs.. etc

Hard questions need to be asked why kenyans need yet a third liberation after the second one. People need to make tough decisions politically going forward if they want to avoid complete collapse.
 
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