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Lockdown is not the way to go, says health expert
By Graham Kajilwa | Wednesday, Apr 22nd 2020
A top epidemiologist has criticised governments’ reaction to the Covid-19 pandemic, saying the authoritarian move to restrict movement may not yield the intended results.
Johan Giesecke, an infectious disease expert based in Sweden, has argued that the move to restrict people’s movement only slows down spread of the disease, and in the end, once the restrictions are lifted, those who are susceptible to the illness could still die.
Sweden has taken a more relaxed approach in combating the pandemic sweeping through Europe, leaving its schools, restaurants and other hangout joints open. Its citizens, however, have been urged to act responsibly and follow social distancing rules.
Speaking to UnHerd, a British news website, Prof Johan, who has worked with World Health Organisation, said the spread and severity of Covid-19 largely depends on one’s immunity and whatever the governments do, it will be difficult to stop its spread and impact thereafter.
“I think what we are seeing is a tsunami of a usually mild disease that is sweeping across Europe and (we see) some countries do this, others do that, others don’t do that, and in the end there will be very little difference,” he said.
He noted that lockdown should not be construed to be the main reason for the curve flattening as a result of less infection rates and deaths.
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Johan said a better explanation was that the older population, who are more at risk, were dying hence the virus was left with the younger population, which was likely to survive if they got sick, or might not even show symptoms when infected.
He indicated that if serological tests were to be done, it would be found that the infection has spread to millions of people largely unaware they are sick.
Serological tests measure the amount of antibodies or proteins present in the blood when the body is responding to a specific infection, like Covid-19.
“Countries will ease up restrictions, see what happens in the next two to three weeks, and realise the numbers are rising and conclude the strategy (lockdown) did not work so well, then we will try another way,” he said. “Increased number of deaths (after lifting restrictions) will be part of checking which strategy should be kept or not.”
Giving a case scenario of Europe, Johan said the disease is bound to spread all over the continent no matter how long people are locked up.
“How long do you think you can lock down people? We are saying, protect the old and try to slow down the pandemic so that healthcare systems would be able to manage when we have severely ill people,” said Johan.
By yesterday, Sweden had reported 14,777 confirmed cases, with 1,580 deaths against a population of more than 10 million. In comparison, Italy had 181,228 cases and 24,114 deaths, Spain had 204,178 cases and 21,282 deaths while the UK reported 124,743 cases and 16,509 deaths.
Kenya had 281 cases with 14 deaths. Globally, there were more than 2.5 million confirmed cases and over 170,000 deaths.
By Graham Kajilwa | Wednesday, Apr 22nd 2020
A top epidemiologist has criticised governments’ reaction to the Covid-19 pandemic, saying the authoritarian move to restrict movement may not yield the intended results.
Johan Giesecke, an infectious disease expert based in Sweden, has argued that the move to restrict people’s movement only slows down spread of the disease, and in the end, once the restrictions are lifted, those who are susceptible to the illness could still die.
Sweden has taken a more relaxed approach in combating the pandemic sweeping through Europe, leaving its schools, restaurants and other hangout joints open. Its citizens, however, have been urged to act responsibly and follow social distancing rules.
Speaking to UnHerd, a British news website, Prof Johan, who has worked with World Health Organisation, said the spread and severity of Covid-19 largely depends on one’s immunity and whatever the governments do, it will be difficult to stop its spread and impact thereafter.
“I think what we are seeing is a tsunami of a usually mild disease that is sweeping across Europe and (we see) some countries do this, others do that, others don’t do that, and in the end there will be very little difference,” he said.
He noted that lockdown should not be construed to be the main reason for the curve flattening as a result of less infection rates and deaths.
READ MORE
Do's and don'ts of nutrition to help the body fight off Covid-19
V, U and L: How states will rise after pandemic
Treasury cuts GDP forecast to 2.5 per cent
Johan said a better explanation was that the older population, who are more at risk, were dying hence the virus was left with the younger population, which was likely to survive if they got sick, or might not even show symptoms when infected.
He indicated that if serological tests were to be done, it would be found that the infection has spread to millions of people largely unaware they are sick.
Serological tests measure the amount of antibodies or proteins present in the blood when the body is responding to a specific infection, like Covid-19.
“Countries will ease up restrictions, see what happens in the next two to three weeks, and realise the numbers are rising and conclude the strategy (lockdown) did not work so well, then we will try another way,” he said. “Increased number of deaths (after lifting restrictions) will be part of checking which strategy should be kept or not.”
Giving a case scenario of Europe, Johan said the disease is bound to spread all over the continent no matter how long people are locked up.
“How long do you think you can lock down people? We are saying, protect the old and try to slow down the pandemic so that healthcare systems would be able to manage when we have severely ill people,” said Johan.
By yesterday, Sweden had reported 14,777 confirmed cases, with 1,580 deaths against a population of more than 10 million. In comparison, Italy had 181,228 cases and 24,114 deaths, Spain had 204,178 cases and 21,282 deaths while the UK reported 124,743 cases and 16,509 deaths.
Kenya had 281 cases with 14 deaths. Globally, there were more than 2.5 million confirmed cases and over 170,000 deaths.
