mzeiya
Elder Lister
GEOPOLITICS MONDAY.
RAILA AMOLLO ODINGA.
POSSIBLE LAST WEEK AS A POLITICIAN.
The AU election is usually held every 4 years and the elected officials hold office for a max of 4 years and can vie for a second term of 4 years.
The Current Chair is Moussa Faki of Chad.
So as to be fair,the chairperson position is usually rotated within 5 regions of the continent so every four years a different region takes the job.
These five regions- Central Africa (9),Eastern Africa(14),Nothern Africa(7),Southern Africa(10),Western Africa (15)
The current chair’s term ends this week and an election will be taking place this coming Saturday.
Its Eastern Africa's turn to present a candidate
Five candidates from this region have tendered their names forward to compete;
Mahamoud Ali Yousouf (Djibouti – East Africa)
Richard Randriamandrato (Madagascar – East Africa)
Raila Odinga (Kenya – East Africa)
Without undermining the Malagasy,I would like to focus on the Djibouti candidate as he is the one posing a real threat to Raila's candidature.
1.
We have history with Djibouti in the Eastern Part of Africa.
Back in 2020 when the UN security Council position was coming to East Africa as a Non veto member,Kenya fronted a candidate.
We were backed by the whole of East Africa,but Djibouti decided to front their own candidate.
This vote went to the AU and Djibouti was defeated,but instead of taking the verdict,they appealed to the UN General assembly and a vote had to be taken in New York.
On the first round,we tied.
On the second round,we defeated Djibouti by a slim chance.
So first thing to know about Djibouti is that unlike other East African states,they are not intimidated by Kenya and are actually serious about this bid.
2.
Kenya had been at the UNsc twice but still insisted to go a third time,Djibouti is using this particular incident to appeal to Pitty and equity and some countries actually want to correct that.
Also note that the same candidate that vied for this seat,is the one going against Raila Odinga.
3.
When it comes to African politics,somehow we align ourselves according to our colonizers so you find countries colonized by England herd together,Countries colonized by France herd together hence the Anglophone,Francophone blocks.
Djibouti has Francophone,Anglophone and Arabic speakers and this gives them an advantage when it comes to countries that still herd along these lines and gives them an advantage against Kenya that can only negotiate fully with Anglophone countries.
4.
Raila Odinga has been endorsed by majority of the presidents in East Africa,but not all.
We have a certain cold war with Ethiopia,Somalia.
The North Kivu issue also seems to not favor us with DRC,As you saw our Embassy being burnt in Kinshasa.
5.
There are talks that Kenya is not going to the AU for the right reasons,While the Djibouti candidate is a technocrat with real interests,African countries feel Raila is a Pan Africanist who is being juxtaposed to the AU for the Kenyan local politicial expediency and survival in the face of a generational upheaval..and alot of African countries feel its not their job to clean up Kenya.
6.
We seem to have also created abit of unease with countries in Africa that do not subscribe to Imperialism or the US politics,our tour of the US was largely watched by our neighbors some of whom are actually jealous of our harvests.
7.
The biggest threat I also observed comes from the 'Organisation of Islamic Conference' where 27countries are members.
Countries that are largely Islamic and Djibouti identifies as Islamic,Their candidate is Islam - as we Identify as a largely Christian country and Raila is Christian.
If all or most of the 27 OIC members vote for Djibouti then I think business will be concluded very early on.
I had written a post in 2024 that it will not be a walk in the park but The Raila team has done a tremendous job of shuttle diplomacy and lobbying.
Silent deals have been made,Concessions,Shares,Land..The Ruto Govt has thrown everything at this campaign.
-A Raila win means an exit from the Kenyan Political space where he has shown up at the ballot a record 5 times or 25 years.
-A Raila win means for the first time since 2002 we will see a different face in the ballot coming up against the Incumbent.
-A Raila win means business as usual in Govt because as we have learnt,Upheavals cannot effectively play out without Luos.
-A Raila win means 2027 the nominations in Luo Land, will no longer be about whose hand has been 'raised by baba' or the cartels in ODM I called out last year, and we might now achieve issue based Politics in the region.
-A Raila win means a possible rise of New Western Kingpins to take care of the Luo,Luhya,Abagusi Voting bloc.
-A Raila win means the luo vote is up for grabs to whoever appeals most whether its Ruto or opposition.
A Raila loss which is highly unlikely means he may turn against Ruto’s Govt and marshall his troops outside of Govt..I think we are already seeing alternative thoughts even within ODM.
A Raila loss means he will still be actively involved in the politics of Nyanza and so we are unlikely to see any fresh blood in leadership and may have to deal with nomination certificate cartels in the party.
A Raila loss means he MUST be on the ballot in 2027 and we know how that goes.
On Paper this is how it looks;
49 Countries.
You need two thirds of this number which 33 Countries to win on Round one.
The Raila team claims they have 28 on their side which means they need to convince 5 countries.
The Djibouti team are not claiming any numbers and it may be that they have sensed defeat or know something we don't.
This will be a secret ballot and we get to know when we get to know.
(I have used my favorite photo of him,as I remember him,That was always displayed in our house as children)
~Deborah Auko
RAILA AMOLLO ODINGA.
POSSIBLE LAST WEEK AS A POLITICIAN.
The AU election is usually held every 4 years and the elected officials hold office for a max of 4 years and can vie for a second term of 4 years.
The Current Chair is Moussa Faki of Chad.
So as to be fair,the chairperson position is usually rotated within 5 regions of the continent so every four years a different region takes the job.
These five regions- Central Africa (9),Eastern Africa(14),Nothern Africa(7),Southern Africa(10),Western Africa (15)
The current chair’s term ends this week and an election will be taking place this coming Saturday.
Its Eastern Africa's turn to present a candidate
Five candidates from this region have tendered their names forward to compete;
Mahamoud Ali Yousouf (Djibouti – East Africa)
Richard Randriamandrato (Madagascar – East Africa)
Raila Odinga (Kenya – East Africa)
Without undermining the Malagasy,I would like to focus on the Djibouti candidate as he is the one posing a real threat to Raila's candidature.
1.
We have history with Djibouti in the Eastern Part of Africa.
Back in 2020 when the UN security Council position was coming to East Africa as a Non veto member,Kenya fronted a candidate.
We were backed by the whole of East Africa,but Djibouti decided to front their own candidate.
This vote went to the AU and Djibouti was defeated,but instead of taking the verdict,they appealed to the UN General assembly and a vote had to be taken in New York.
On the first round,we tied.
On the second round,we defeated Djibouti by a slim chance.
So first thing to know about Djibouti is that unlike other East African states,they are not intimidated by Kenya and are actually serious about this bid.
2.
Kenya had been at the UNsc twice but still insisted to go a third time,Djibouti is using this particular incident to appeal to Pitty and equity and some countries actually want to correct that.
Also note that the same candidate that vied for this seat,is the one going against Raila Odinga.
3.
When it comes to African politics,somehow we align ourselves according to our colonizers so you find countries colonized by England herd together,Countries colonized by France herd together hence the Anglophone,Francophone blocks.
Djibouti has Francophone,Anglophone and Arabic speakers and this gives them an advantage when it comes to countries that still herd along these lines and gives them an advantage against Kenya that can only negotiate fully with Anglophone countries.
4.
Raila Odinga has been endorsed by majority of the presidents in East Africa,but not all.
We have a certain cold war with Ethiopia,Somalia.
The North Kivu issue also seems to not favor us with DRC,As you saw our Embassy being burnt in Kinshasa.
5.
There are talks that Kenya is not going to the AU for the right reasons,While the Djibouti candidate is a technocrat with real interests,African countries feel Raila is a Pan Africanist who is being juxtaposed to the AU for the Kenyan local politicial expediency and survival in the face of a generational upheaval..and alot of African countries feel its not their job to clean up Kenya.
6.
We seem to have also created abit of unease with countries in Africa that do not subscribe to Imperialism or the US politics,our tour of the US was largely watched by our neighbors some of whom are actually jealous of our harvests.
7.
The biggest threat I also observed comes from the 'Organisation of Islamic Conference' where 27countries are members.
Countries that are largely Islamic and Djibouti identifies as Islamic,Their candidate is Islam - as we Identify as a largely Christian country and Raila is Christian.
If all or most of the 27 OIC members vote for Djibouti then I think business will be concluded very early on.
I had written a post in 2024 that it will not be a walk in the park but The Raila team has done a tremendous job of shuttle diplomacy and lobbying.
Silent deals have been made,Concessions,Shares,Land..The Ruto Govt has thrown everything at this campaign.
-A Raila win means an exit from the Kenyan Political space where he has shown up at the ballot a record 5 times or 25 years.
-A Raila win means for the first time since 2002 we will see a different face in the ballot coming up against the Incumbent.
-A Raila win means business as usual in Govt because as we have learnt,Upheavals cannot effectively play out without Luos.
-A Raila win means 2027 the nominations in Luo Land, will no longer be about whose hand has been 'raised by baba' or the cartels in ODM I called out last year, and we might now achieve issue based Politics in the region.
-A Raila win means a possible rise of New Western Kingpins to take care of the Luo,Luhya,Abagusi Voting bloc.
-A Raila win means the luo vote is up for grabs to whoever appeals most whether its Ruto or opposition.
A Raila loss which is highly unlikely means he may turn against Ruto’s Govt and marshall his troops outside of Govt..I think we are already seeing alternative thoughts even within ODM.
A Raila loss means he will still be actively involved in the politics of Nyanza and so we are unlikely to see any fresh blood in leadership and may have to deal with nomination certificate cartels in the party.
A Raila loss means he MUST be on the ballot in 2027 and we know how that goes.
On Paper this is how it looks;
49 Countries.
You need two thirds of this number which 33 Countries to win on Round one.
The Raila team claims they have 28 on their side which means they need to convince 5 countries.
The Djibouti team are not claiming any numbers and it may be that they have sensed defeat or know something we don't.
This will be a secret ballot and we get to know when we get to know.
(I have used my favorite photo of him,as I remember him,That was always displayed in our house as children)
~Deborah Auko
