An interview with Vadym Skibitsky, deputy head of Ukraine’s military intelligence
Key highlights
1. Things, he says, are as difficult as they have ever been since the early days of Russia’s full-scale invasion. And they are about to get worse.
2. He predicts that Russia will first press on with its plan to “liberate” all of Ukraine’s eastern Donetsk and Luhansk regions, a task unchanged since 2022. He says a Russian order has gone out to “take something” in time for the pomp of Victory Day in Moscow on May 9th, or, failing that, before Vladimir Putin’s visit to Beijing a week later. The speed and success of the advance will determine when and where the Russians strike next.
3. He's quoted saying, “Our problem is very simple: we have no weapons. They always knew April and May would be a difficult time for us.” But the Ukraine problem is far beyond weapons. They recently received a huge aid package from the US. The main problem is the lack of manpower which their main sponsor can't print.
4. It is probably a matter of time before the fortress city of Chasiv Yar falls in a similar way to Avdiivka.
5. Russia has already won a tactical success in the south-west in the village of Ocheretyne, where a recent Ukrainian troop rotation was bungled. Russian forces succeeded in breaking through a first line of defence and have created a salient 25 square kilometres in size.
6. The General says he does not see a way for Ukraine to win the war on the battlefield alone. Even if it were able to push Russian forces back to the borders—an increasingly distant prospect—it wouldn’t end the war. Such wars can only end with treaties, he says. Right now, both sides are jockeying for “the most favorable position” ahead of potential talks. But meaningful negotiations can begin only in the second half of 2025 at the earliest, he guesses.
Full article:
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For those of us who follow Ukraine war updates, we know History Legends is the best analyst. YouTube targets his videos with no ads for his analysis, yet he has been correct 100% of the time.
Here is his latest video on the battlefield:
Key highlights
1. Things, he says, are as difficult as they have ever been since the early days of Russia’s full-scale invasion. And they are about to get worse.
2. He predicts that Russia will first press on with its plan to “liberate” all of Ukraine’s eastern Donetsk and Luhansk regions, a task unchanged since 2022. He says a Russian order has gone out to “take something” in time for the pomp of Victory Day in Moscow on May 9th, or, failing that, before Vladimir Putin’s visit to Beijing a week later. The speed and success of the advance will determine when and where the Russians strike next.
3. He's quoted saying, “Our problem is very simple: we have no weapons. They always knew April and May would be a difficult time for us.” But the Ukraine problem is far beyond weapons. They recently received a huge aid package from the US. The main problem is the lack of manpower which their main sponsor can't print.
4. It is probably a matter of time before the fortress city of Chasiv Yar falls in a similar way to Avdiivka.
5. Russia has already won a tactical success in the south-west in the village of Ocheretyne, where a recent Ukrainian troop rotation was bungled. Russian forces succeeded in breaking through a first line of defence and have created a salient 25 square kilometres in size.
6. The General says he does not see a way for Ukraine to win the war on the battlefield alone. Even if it were able to push Russian forces back to the borders—an increasingly distant prospect—it wouldn’t end the war. Such wars can only end with treaties, he says. Right now, both sides are jockeying for “the most favorable position” ahead of potential talks. But meaningful negotiations can begin only in the second half of 2025 at the earliest, he guesses.
Full article:
.
Those who wish to read articles like this from The Economist, FT, Washington Post, NYTimes, etc, can paste the link here: https://archive.ph/
For those of us who follow Ukraine war updates, we know History Legends is the best analyst. YouTube targets his videos with no ads for his analysis, yet he has been correct 100% of the time.
Here is his latest video on the battlefield:
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