Field Marshal
Elder Lister
Here it is, boys and girls.
There will be 4 main formations going into 2022 elections.
1. Raila's.
2. Ruto's.
3. Deep State's.
4. The Progressives.
The third formation may have a surprise dude as its presidential candidate (current contenders include Musalia, Kibwana, Matiang'i, Kalonzo and distantly, Gideon). The gameplan by the 'deep state' to support this formation is to block Ruto from getting 50%+1, which will win him the presidency in the first round.
So who are The Progressives? This will be a coalition that will emerge independently this year, and will be fronted by the likes of Karua, Mukhisa, Mutua, Kabogo, etc and many new candidates driven by social media. This formation will have a tacit nod from elements in the Kenyatta administration. It will be their Plan B to block Ruto.
So what will be results in 2022?
None of the 4 formations will win 50%+1 in the first round.
Ruto's formation will however get over 40%, followed by either the Deep State Formation or The Progressives (do not under-estimate the deep of dissatisfaction with the current political elite).
The Mganga is basically done and dusted except in his fanatical Luo tribal base, which will see him revert to the 1997 number 4 position (good riddance to bad rubbish by the way).
The results of the first round will be to the Deep State's gameplan - to go to a run-off with Ruto either with their candidate (lets say a Matiang'i-Kalonzo ticket) or that of the Progressives (let's say a Mukhisa-Karua ticket).
In both cases, Deep State hopes that if this happens, the two remaining formations that came 3rd and 4th in the first round will pour their votes into the formation that comes second to Ruto's, thus blocking the man from Sugoi from ascending to the House on the Hill.
PS: The term Deep State is used very advisedly, as no such thing exists. What there is is is a cabal of top Kenyatta officials and family members who want to control the Uhuru Transition to a person of their liking.
And there, ladies and gentlemen, is some of the greatest political insight you are likely to see in months.
There will be 4 main formations going into 2022 elections.
1. Raila's.
2. Ruto's.
3. Deep State's.
4. The Progressives.
The third formation may have a surprise dude as its presidential candidate (current contenders include Musalia, Kibwana, Matiang'i, Kalonzo and distantly, Gideon). The gameplan by the 'deep state' to support this formation is to block Ruto from getting 50%+1, which will win him the presidency in the first round.
So who are The Progressives? This will be a coalition that will emerge independently this year, and will be fronted by the likes of Karua, Mukhisa, Mutua, Kabogo, etc and many new candidates driven by social media. This formation will have a tacit nod from elements in the Kenyatta administration. It will be their Plan B to block Ruto.
So what will be results in 2022?
None of the 4 formations will win 50%+1 in the first round.
Ruto's formation will however get over 40%, followed by either the Deep State Formation or The Progressives (do not under-estimate the deep of dissatisfaction with the current political elite).
The Mganga is basically done and dusted except in his fanatical Luo tribal base, which will see him revert to the 1997 number 4 position (good riddance to bad rubbish by the way).
The results of the first round will be to the Deep State's gameplan - to go to a run-off with Ruto either with their candidate (lets say a Matiang'i-Kalonzo ticket) or that of the Progressives (let's say a Mukhisa-Karua ticket).
In both cases, Deep State hopes that if this happens, the two remaining formations that came 3rd and 4th in the first round will pour their votes into the formation that comes second to Ruto's, thus blocking the man from Sugoi from ascending to the House on the Hill.
PS: The term Deep State is used very advisedly, as no such thing exists. What there is is is a cabal of top Kenyatta officials and family members who want to control the Uhuru Transition to a person of their liking.
And there, ladies and gentlemen, is some of the greatest political insight you are likely to see in months.
