Greetings. I am back. Long thread.

Field Marshal

Field Marshal

Elder Lister
Okiya said:
I was away for work. October- March/ April are the craziest for me because we have to issue financial statements to banks and companies listed on the NSE and making presentations to the boards. But am not complaining. I like what I'm doing.

I hope you are all well though. Naona kijiji iko gangari.

So I'm trying to catch up what I missed and I came across the thread by MIB ( Most Influential Bonobo) praising the Jubilee government. He raised several points but I will respond to the ones that are in my forte i.e. matters economy.

But before I respond, let me start by defining the term state capture.

State capture is a type of systemic political corruption in which private interests significantly influence a state's decision-making processes to their own advantage. The term was first used by the World Bank, around the year 2000, to describe the situation in certain central Asian countries making the transition from Soviet communism. Specifically, it was applied to situations where small corrupt groups used their influence over government officials to appropriate government decision-making in order to strengthen their own economic positions.

Now let's get to the business of deconstructing falsehoods:

MIB: "The tax rates are as they were 10 years ago. GIVE AN EXAMPLE OF ANY THAT HAS BEEN RAISED. "

Response: The unfortunate bit is that MIB doesn't seem to know the types of taxes. He is only looking at PAYE, VAT and Corporate Tax. Governments world over are not stupid. They mainly focus on indirect taxes since they can be slipped in mostly unnoticed. Examples of indirect taxes that the government has increased over the years are excise duty and customs duty.

MIB: " Uhuru has raised electricity connectivity from around 30% to over 80% - the highest in any developing country IN THE WORLD. Electricity production has doubled in just 10 years! "

Response: True, connectivity has increased over time. However, what you forget to look at is the cost of electricity. Let me break it down for you. In 2013 the cost per Kilowatt hour was KShs 16.85. Currently the cost per Kilowatt hour is KShs 24.60. Try and do some research on the owners of the independent power producers you will know what state capture is.

MIB: "Uhuru's gavament has come up with some of the fastest innovations to ease mwananchi's life. According to the WB and IMF, Kenya is the most improved country EVER in the ease of doing business. Locally, you now only need to go to your local Huduma centre to get an ID, register a business, etc. Things that used to take an year during Moi's time now take less than a week! .."

Response: How does the ability to register a business at Huduma centre translate to ease of doing business? In Kenya, 70% of SMEs collapse after 5 years mainly due to unfavorable policies and economic climate! Now with policies like minimum tax you still say ease of doing business is improving? MIB indeed!

I could go an on. But let me conclude by leaving the following statistics.

NSE 20 share index at the time of Kibaki's exit- 4,658 points
NSE 20 share index as at December 2019 - 2,654 points

Kenya's debt as a percentage of GDP at the time of Kibaki's exit- 39.8%
Kenya's debt as a percentage of GDP as at December 2019- 62.4%

IPOs during Kibaki's tenure- Co-op Bank ( 2008), Equity ( 2006), Kengen ( 2006), Britam ( 2011), Safaricom ( 2008), Scangroup (2006), Access Kenya (2007), Eveready (2006), BAT ( 2011)
IPOs during Uhuru's tenure- Only 1 ( NSE).

The country wants to be an industrialized nation yet manufacturing as a percentage of GDP has been decreasing over the years!!.

The last time I felt like vomiting was in 2007 when I visited City Council toilets. The next time was today when I read MIB's thread showering praises on the jubilee error.

Adios.

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Welcome back sir. We need people like you here who have more than two brain cells to rub together.

Karibu sana.

Having said that I take great exception to your calling me a bonobo; it's obvious that I am highly gifted. Kindly withdraw that fallacious statement.

Elsewhere, you have just regurgitated what I have just been saying. If you have read my replies, for example, you would have seen that I said Uhuru's borrowing spree was ill-advised. NOWHERE HAVE I SAID UHURU IS PERFECT, OR EVEN NEAR THAT.

I also advised one Lister not to concentrate on IPOs (gavament was privatising the likes of Coop Bank, Kengen and Safaricom during Kibaki's time) BUT at the NSE index. Again, I pointed out that this has fallen by half due to market sentiments, the global economic environment, etc. A bad thing obviously.

Your other major point is the contribution of manufacturing to GDP. I readily concede that the gavament could do more to improve the environment for manufacturers by using non-tarriff barriers to protect local industry and lowering the cost of electricity (no way we can compete with Egypt when their electricity is half the price of ours). But there is also another explanation for the contraction you are forgeting; the expansion of the service sector.

Kenya's economy has been growing at over 5% pa on average on the back of the service sector, meaning that the contribution of other sectors (tourism, agriculture, manufacturing etc etc) has been going down as a percentage of GDP. I hope this makes sense.

Lastly, you talk of IPPs. Again, I have already pointed out that this is a big concern due to corruption. But pray thee my good man, when were the IPP contracts signed? MOST WERE RENEWED DURING KIBAKI'S TIME. To the best of my knowledge, only one or two were renewed during Uhuru's time, though here I stand to be corrected.

All in all, welcome back. Many of us missed your (often flawed) contributions.
 
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Okiya

Elder Lister
Field Marshal said:
Your other major point is the contribution of manufacturing to GDP. I readily concede that the gavament could do more to improve the environment for manufacturers by using non-tarriff barriers to protect local industry and lowering the cost of electricity (no way we can compete with Egypt when their electricity is half the price of ours). But there is also another explanation for the contraction you are forgeting; the expansion of the service sector.
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The service sector contribution to GDP has contracted from 48% in 2013 to 42% in 2019.
 
Field Marshal

Field Marshal

Elder Lister
Okiya said:
The service sector contribution to GDP has contracted from 48% in 2013 to 42% in 2019.
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Thanks. What sectors are responsible for the expansion in GDP then?

EDIT: Confirmed, you are right. The other sectors are being compressed by agriculture, not services.

www.statista.com

Kenya - share of economic sectors in the gross domestic product 2022 | Statista

This statistic shows the share of economic sectors in the gross domestic product (GDP) in Kenya from 2012 to 2022.
www.statista.com www.statista.com
 
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O

Okiya

Elder Lister
Field Marshal said:
Lastly, you talk of IPPs. Again, I have already pointed out that this is a big concern due to corruption. But pray thee my good man, when were the IPP contracts signed? MOST WERE RENEWED DURING KIBAKI'S TIME. To the best of my knowledge, only one or two were renewed during Uhuru's time, though here I stand to be corrected.
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Research how many new IPPs have been signed between 2013 to date. You will be shocked.
 
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