Dear Okiya

upepo

Elder Lister
Epidemiological models are not supposed to provide accurate predictions - they simply provide a range of possible outcomes, outcomes that are highly sensitive to the actions of the target population. This means that when a population reacts to a prediction in any way, the outcome is so different from the prediction that the prediction ends up looking false.
 

It's Me Scumbag

Elder Lister
Epidemiological models are not supposed to provide accurate predictions - they simply provide a range of possible outcomes, outcomes that are highly sensitive to the actions of the target population. This means that when a population reacts to a prediction in any way, the outcome is so different from the prediction that the prediction ends up looking false.
Problem is with corona,niggas are believing in the models predictions rather than what is statistically available on the ground.
This is leading to panic and fear...
 
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Nattydread

Elder Lister
Epidemiological models are not supposed to provide accurate predictions - they simply provide a range of possible outcomes, outcomes that are highly sensitive to the actions of the target population. This means that when a population reacts to a prediction in any way, the outcome is so different from the prediction that the prediction ends up looking false.
By now, @Okiya should have already produced a model for Kenya. There is where his exceptional skills will soon be badly needed.
 

Okiya

Elder Lister
I believe you 100%. Those models were wrong. Here's the next challenge since you love facts and statistics so much:

The Prime Minister of the UK spent the night in an ICU bed. So far, 2/3 of those admitted need a ventilator for 3-4 weeks. How many die despite the machine?
I wish the PM quick recovery. FYI, nobody refuses there is Corona Virus. What we are casting doubt are the doomsday models. The doomsday models predicted many would die. The model in UK developed by Neil Ferguson predicted so many deaths in UK. Lets wait and compare once Covid 19 is over. Neil Ferguson yesterday said that 2/3 of those COVID19 patients would have died this year anyway.

FYI in 2003, Neil Ferguson used computer modelling to suggest 150,000 people would die from Mad Cow Disease. Since then, around 200 people have actually died.
 

Nattydread

Elder Lister
A model is only as good as the parameters that go into it. I chose not to understand a model computed using a calculator I used in my CPA classes. Why hasn't he factored clustering, age group, reproduction number and other parameters? Anyway, it was a good refresher from the gentleman
Model za Alex Jones zimefanywa na super computer?
 
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