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Elder Lister
@Okiya A dose of reality hope you have the stamina to endure mpaka august 2032 yap +3000 days


Why no strong politician will arise to rival Ruto in 2027
  • It is impossible that an Azimio politician is going to muster the art of coalition building or bringing people together to get strong support.
  • It is an art that Ruto perfected besides being a strong political mobiliser within ODM itself in 2006-2007
For decades now, Wiper’s Kalonzo Musyoka has been known to be a man who favours shortcuts such as the endorsement of other politicians such as Raila Odinga.

Kalonzo managed to build his party, Wiper Democratic Movement, which rebranded from ODM-Kenya, to become a force to reckon with in Ukambani. However, he has mostly been viewed as a lightweight politician who supports others to become strong presidential candidates in Kenya.

After forming ODM-Kenya together in 2005 following their success in the Oranges versus Bananas referendum, internal intrigues where both Raila and Kalonzo were jostling for the presidential ticket led to the party's breakup.


The Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) had been a centre-left political party in Kenya, which one can say was the successor of a grassroots people’s movement as it was quite popular at the time.


Anyway, after men in black wielding hammers heckled Kalonzo at Khadijah grounds in Mombasa and made him prematurely cut his speech, Kalonzo retained the party while Raila bought back the Orange Democratic Party (ODM).

Kalonzo had years earlier in 2002 hoped that he would be the compromise candidate for the opposition after Kanu imploded and he together with Raila, George Saitoti and others had without grace exited in a huff. This led to the formation of the National Rainbow Coalition, which combined the opposition with the Liberal Democratic Party formed in 2002.


ODM is the party Raila has built over the years despite not winning any presidential election he has participated in. Perfectly cognisant of Kenya’s tribalistic political orientation, he formed the pentagon, which comprised Joe Nyagah, Najib Balala, Raila Odinga, Musalia Mudavadi and William Ruto.

Kalonzo Musyoka did not manage to build ODM-Kenya into a strong national party. However, he managed to secure the position of vice president after the hotly contested 2007 presidential election and get one over Raila.


After the Kofi Annan-led mediation efforts to stem the political violence in Kenya, which had led to the loss of over 1,000 lives, the grand coalition government was formed in 2008. In this government, Raila as Prime Minister struggled to become a strong actor in it as the likes of Ambassador Francis Muthaura checked and neutered his strategies and protected Kibaki’s space using clever statecraft.


Not even Kalonzo managed to build his political strength and influence because he might have hoped for Kibaki’s endorsement which never came.

All that is history, but at least Raila managed to build his party, ODM, into a strong national outfit after taking it over in 2007. The Wiper Democratic Movement has essentially been a regional party, as it has only been strong in the Lower Eastern region despite winning a few parliamentary seats outside the region once in a while.

Effectively, despite being able to sit at the very top with other political actors in Kenya, Kalonzo cannot be said to be a national leader if the very essence of that is to be considered. He is a regional kingpin but not a national leader.



Besides Raila, the only other man who has successfully managed to build a strong political party in Kenya is President William Ruto, especially after the formation of the United Democratic Alliance in 2020. The party has legislative representation in most of the regions of Kenya. This makes Ruto a formidable presidential candidate for 2027, and with the exit of Raila, whom he defeated in 2022, he will be even stronger in 2027.

Running for president in Kenya is a demanding and competitive endeavour that requires immense dedication, stamina and resilience. A strong presidential candidate must be prepared to withstand the rigours of the campaign trail, including gruelling schedules, intense scrutiny and political attacks from opponents.

They should demonstrate resilience in the face of setbacks and challenges, maintaining focus on their goals and remaining steadfast in their commitment to serving the interests of the Kenyan people. Despite losing or missing the support of former president Uhuru Kenyatta, Ruto still managed to secure critical support in the Mt Kenya region, meaning he has a strong appeal as a presidential candidate and national leader in Kenya.


Resilience enables the candidate to navigate the ups and downs of the electoral process with grace and determination, emerging stronger and more resilient as a result. Investing time and resources in elections is a critical endeavour and one that is inevitable. Raila’s Azimio coalition was even unable to raise and support ground soldiers in the Mt Kenya region and Rift Valley yet they still believed they had won the 2022 election despite the tyranny of numbers.

It is impossible that an Azimio politician is going to muster the art of coalition building or bringing people together to get strong support. It is an art that Ruto perfected besides being a strong political mobiliser within ODM itself in 2006-2007.

The meeting of Kalonzo apparently with some elders of the Agikuyu community, and the vibe emerging from that that he wants to have the Gema movement revived showed great desperation and misplaced priority and failure to learn from the past. Despite having the ‘Mount Kenya Mafia’ and the wealthiest elders of the Kikuyu on his side in 2022, Raila did not manage to conjure up a movement in Mount Kenya and the people there rejected him heavily.


The reality is that Kalonzo lacks strong private political communication skills and cannot win the support of Kenya's political class who are the sorely needed ground soldiers to help anyone become a strong presidential contender.

These politicians, in both the opposition and the ruling coalition, will definitely consider Ruto a more reliable leader going into 2027. It is not going to be possible to keep Azimio together because even ODM is likely to implode.

The writing is already on the wall with the likes of former Mombasa Governor Hassan Joho announcing his candidature for presidency in 2027 while Wycliffe Oparanya is also said to be keen on it. None of these politicians appear to take Kalonzo seriously for various reasons.

The political dynamics in Western Kenya are also changing fast and Oparanya might find it extremely difficult to find footing there through ODM. The growth of aggressive politics in Western Kenya pushed by likes of Didmus Barasa, George Natembeya and others is likely to muddy the waters there for politicians from the region who might want to run for president using an opposition party ticket in 2027.


Musalia Mudavadi and Moses Wetang'ula remain strong in the region as well. Unable to establish himself as a kingpin in Vihiga, Kakamega and Bungoma will render Oparanya politically finished and it would be better if he did not even try to run in the first place.
 

Okiya

Elder Lister
@Okiya A dose of reality hope you have the stamina to endure mpaka august 2032 yap +3000 days


Why no strong politician will arise to rival Ruto in 2027
  • It is impossible that an Azimio politician is going to muster the art of coalition building or bringing people together to get strong support.
  • It is an art that Ruto perfected besides being a strong political mobiliser within ODM itself in 2006-2007
For decades now, Wiper’s Kalonzo Musyoka has been known to be a man who favours shortcuts such as the endorsement of other politicians such as Raila Odinga.

Kalonzo managed to build his party, Wiper Democratic Movement, which rebranded from ODM-Kenya, to become a force to reckon with in Ukambani. However, he has mostly been viewed as a lightweight politician who supports others to become strong presidential candidates in Kenya.

After forming ODM-Kenya together in 2005 following their success in the Oranges versus Bananas referendum, internal intrigues where both Raila and Kalonzo were jostling for the presidential ticket led to the party's breakup.


The Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) had been a centre-left political party in Kenya, which one can say was the successor of a grassroots people’s movement as it was quite popular at the time.


Anyway, after men in black wielding hammers heckled Kalonzo at Khadijah grounds in Mombasa and made him prematurely cut his speech, Kalonzo retained the party while Raila bought back the Orange Democratic Party (ODM).

Kalonzo had years earlier in 2002 hoped that he would be the compromise candidate for the opposition after Kanu imploded and he together with Raila, George Saitoti and others had without grace exited in a huff. This led to the formation of the National Rainbow Coalition, which combined the opposition with the Liberal Democratic Party formed in 2002.


ODM is the party Raila has built over the years despite not winning any presidential election he has participated in. Perfectly cognisant of Kenya’s tribalistic political orientation, he formed the pentagon, which comprised Joe Nyagah, Najib Balala, Raila Odinga, Musalia Mudavadi and William Ruto.

Kalonzo Musyoka did not manage to build ODM-Kenya into a strong national party. However, he managed to secure the position of vice president after the hotly contested 2007 presidential election and get one over Raila.


After the Kofi Annan-led mediation efforts to stem the political violence in Kenya, which had led to the loss of over 1,000 lives, the grand coalition government was formed in 2008. In this government, Raila as Prime Minister struggled to become a strong actor in it as the likes of Ambassador Francis Muthaura checked and neutered his strategies and protected Kibaki’s space using clever statecraft.


Not even Kalonzo managed to build his political strength and influence because he might have hoped for Kibaki’s endorsement which never came.

All that is history, but at least Raila managed to build his party, ODM, into a strong national outfit after taking it over in 2007. The Wiper Democratic Movement has essentially been a regional party, as it has only been strong in the Lower Eastern region despite winning a few parliamentary seats outside the region once in a while.

Effectively, despite being able to sit at the very top with other political actors in Kenya, Kalonzo cannot be said to be a national leader if the very essence of that is to be considered. He is a regional kingpin but not a national leader.



Besides Raila, the only other man who has successfully managed to build a strong political party in Kenya is President William Ruto, especially after the formation of the United Democratic Alliance in 2020. The party has legislative representation in most of the regions of Kenya. This makes Ruto a formidable presidential candidate for 2027, and with the exit of Raila, whom he defeated in 2022, he will be even stronger in 2027.

Running for president in Kenya is a demanding and competitive endeavour that requires immense dedication, stamina and resilience. A strong presidential candidate must be prepared to withstand the rigours of the campaign trail, including gruelling schedules, intense scrutiny and political attacks from opponents.

They should demonstrate resilience in the face of setbacks and challenges, maintaining focus on their goals and remaining steadfast in their commitment to serving the interests of the Kenyan people. Despite losing or missing the support of former president Uhuru Kenyatta, Ruto still managed to secure critical support in the Mt Kenya region, meaning he has a strong appeal as a presidential candidate and national leader in Kenya.


Resilience enables the candidate to navigate the ups and downs of the electoral process with grace and determination, emerging stronger and more resilient as a result. Investing time and resources in elections is a critical endeavour and one that is inevitable. Raila’s Azimio coalition was even unable to raise and support ground soldiers in the Mt Kenya region and Rift Valley yet they still believed they had won the 2022 election despite the tyranny of numbers.

It is impossible that an Azimio politician is going to muster the art of coalition building or bringing people together to get strong support. It is an art that Ruto perfected besides being a strong political mobiliser within ODM itself in 2006-2007.

The meeting of Kalonzo apparently with some elders of the Agikuyu community, and the vibe emerging from that that he wants to have the Gema movement revived showed great desperation and misplaced priority and failure to learn from the past. Despite having the ‘Mount Kenya Mafia’ and the wealthiest elders of the Kikuyu on his side in 2022, Raila did not manage to conjure up a movement in Mount Kenya and the people there rejected him heavily.


The reality is that Kalonzo lacks strong private political communication skills and cannot win the support of Kenya's political class who are the sorely needed ground soldiers to help anyone become a strong presidential contender.

These politicians, in both the opposition and the ruling coalition, will definitely consider Ruto a more reliable leader going into 2027. It is not going to be possible to keep Azimio together because even ODM is likely to implode.

The writing is already on the wall with the likes of former Mombasa Governor Hassan Joho announcing his candidature for presidency in 2027 while Wycliffe Oparanya is also said to be keen on it. None of these politicians appear to take Kalonzo seriously for various reasons.

The political dynamics in Western Kenya are also changing fast and Oparanya might find it extremely difficult to find footing there through ODM. The growth of aggressive politics in Western Kenya pushed by likes of Didmus Barasa, George Natembeya and others is likely to muddy the waters there for politicians from the region who might want to run for president using an opposition party ticket in 2027.


Musalia Mudavadi and Moses Wetang'ula remain strong in the region as well. Unable to establish himself as a kingpin in Vihiga, Kakamega and Bungoma will render Oparanya politically finished and it would be better if he did not even try to run in the first place.
Answer the questions below:

1. Have you been appointed to a government position by this administration?
2. Is your pocket better off now than during Uhuru's time?

That's the dose of reality you need.
 

Kasaman

Elder Lister
Answer the questions below:

1. Have you been appointed to a government position by this administration?
2. Is your pocket better off now than during Uhuru's time?

That's the dose of reality you need.
Ruto inherited a dilapidated economy !
 
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