Is this the begining of the end of the pandemic?

Okiya

Elder Lister
According to various statistical projections, they have not yet hit the peak of the curve
I think they used New York numbers as the baseline to project the entire USA. A model put 6 days ago forecasting about how New York hospitals would be on 1 April 2020 was off the mark by a factor of 4. But anyway we wait and see.
 

Mwendawazimu

Elder Lister
I think they used New York numbers as the baseline to project the entire USA. A model put 6 days ago forecasting about how New York hospitals would be on 1 April 2020 was off the mark by a factor of 4. But anyway we wait and see.
Would wish that but their numbers keep rising and their rate of testing is below 30%
By the weekend we'll see a decline in infections and an increase in recoveries... I hope.
 

Okiya

Elder Lister
Precisely...plus you have not considered that the entire midwest testing rate is under 10%
As in the models were off the mark by a factor of 4 in that 6 days ago (post lockdown) the model had said that on 1st April New York will have 50,000 hospitalizations. But yesterday there were 12,000 hospitalizations. So the question on peoples minds is if NY was the basis and it's off the mark by a huge margin, what about the other states

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MutheeK

Lister
As in the models were off the mark by a factor of 4 in that 6 days ago (post lockdown) the model had said that on 1st April New York will have 50,000 hospitalizations. But yesterday there were 12,000 hospitalizations. So the question on peoples minds is if NY was the basis and it's off the mark by a huge margin, what about the other states

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Its fearful. My mind refuses to accept the scenario when I crank the numbers on New York alone. I feverishly hope we are all wrong
 

Okiya

Elder Lister
Its fearful. My mind refuses to accept the scenario when I crank the numbers on New York alone. I feverishly hope we are all wrong
NY receives many hundreds of thousands of Chinese tourists. They only closed their borders recently. It is therefore reasonable to suspect that the virus has already spread unnoticed in the healthy population.
 

MutheeK

Lister
And may I ask you,the experts,what is the situation go be in our beloved Kenya? Or is the US situation more important?
Kenya has a fair chance at tackling this pandemic. We have decades of experience when it comes to treatment and management of infectious diseases like TB and HIV. We also have excellent facilities and superb medical personnel managers, the likes of Col. (Rtd) Cyrus Oguna, Director General MOH and Dr. Loise Ombajo, Head of Infectious Disease Unit, KNH etc. We can kick corona...that is if the government put its shit together
 
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