Shilling Stabilising

mzeiya

Elder Lister
@Denis Young we're up by 5 KES to the dollar as I type this. Mayangai if it touches 160 mimi na cashout. Can't watch losing all that money juu ya matters beyond my control. Aki tamaa ni mbaya wololo.
 

Denis Young

Elder Lister
@Denis Young we're up by 5 KES to the dollar as I type this. Mayangai if it touches 160 mimi na cashout. Can't watch losing all that money juu ya matters beyond my control. Aki tamaa ni mbaya wololo.
Lol...I hope you did not listen to Swansea. Naona iko ata 140 and CBK has stepped in to support the level. A fast appreciation of the shilling is equally bad. It should be gradual but it seems everyone expected Ruto to default. Wameshikwa flat footed.
 

Denis Young

Elder Lister
When Uhuru's CBK stepped in to protect the shilling it's bad. When Ruto's CBK steps in it's good.
Do you know the difference between supporting an appreciating currency and supporting a depreciating currency ama you just love whining for the sake of it?

CBK is buying dollars from the market at a cheaper rate bolstering its reserves at the same time. That means the cost of repaying our debt is reducing.

When supporting a depreciating shilling, you are selling dollars into the market destroying your reserves which is what Uhuru did and Ruto is undoing because he is actually listening to professionals.
 

Denis Young

Elder Lister
I'm actually quite stressed right now. What would you do in my position man?
Hehe...i told you people trying to take advantage of the selling will be rinsed a good one. People were actually buying into the selling pressure ati speculation. 😅😅

On your case, I would probably hedge. Maybe sell a portion of your dollars and put it into an investment with good returns. The shame with that is, domestic interest rates will also take a massive hit in the coming months. Too much liquidity competing for little demand. So maybe the ideal would be to purchase some assets depending on how liquid you want to be.
 

mzeiya

Elder Lister
So maybe the ideal would be to purchase some assets depending on how liquid you want to be.
I'm in the midst of making my biggest purchase in real estate and from the time we started doing due diligence last week and today, I've possibly lost over half an M since I maintain a USD account. It's more stressful since we agreed with the developer to a discount based on the amount of deposit paid. Ferk. Inauma bana
 

Denis Young

Elder Lister
Unatulia tu bila wasiwasi unless you needed the money tomorrow. The shilling will resume the 160 level a few weeks or months from now once the market is done with cowards.
I wouldn't bet on that if I were you! The issue with Kenya has been liquidity. Too many competing expenses (mostly debt) and very little resources to match them. That is why we have had salary hitches, and delayed disbursements from treasury. The biggest single payment of $2bn has now been resolved with the Eurobond refinancing.

That means we don't need to use our own FX reserves to pay it, which has then contributed to the reduced demand. This signal has triggered dollar hoaders to sell because there is no more upside in hoarding. They have essentially booked their profits.

The expectation therefore is that this trend will continue but under the careful regulation by CBK since volatility is equally bad.

The US is also expected to cut interest rates at some point soon, increasing dollar liquidity.

Furthermore, if republicans win the presidency, you can probably expect the Russia-Ukraine war to grind to a steady halt, but that analysis is for the long term, 2025.
 

Denis Young

Elder Lister
I'm in the midst of making my biggest purchase in real estate and from the time we started doing due diligence last week and today, I've possibly lost over half an M since I maintain a USD account. It's more stressful since we agreed with the developer to a discount based on the amount of deposit paid. Ferk. Inauma bana
500k gone like that! Pole sana but you will just have to eat that loss if you can't renegotiate. These kind of problems is why CBK is intervening.
 
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